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There are always men who consider it unpatriotic to tell the truth, if the truth is not very flattering; but, aside from the morality of the case, we never can learn how to produce a certain effect unless we know rightly what the causes were that produced a similar effect in times past. - Theodore Roosevelt
Daily Update of Boeing 787 Dreamliner flight test program and occasional remarks (in italics) by me. Boeing had been updating its web site daily but did not leave the previous updates for comparison until November 9. Boeing's web site is http://787flighttest.com/ There have been times when the the Boeing web site was down and I continued to update this page blog-style using flight information from FlightAware. July 22, 2011 9:14 AM ZA001 494 flights 1233 hour 35 min Total RR engine 1244 flights 3544 hour 05 min ZA005 261 flights 655 hour 55 min Total GE engine 348 flights 928 hour 55 min Total 1592 flights 4473 hour 00 min Boeing web site says 1594 flights 4477 hours 00 min July 19, 2011 8:56 AM ZA001 491 flights 1225 hour 50 min Total RR engine 1231 flights 3473 hour 20 min ZA005 256 flights 647 hour 25 min Total GE engine 343 flights 920 hour 25 min Total 1574 flights 4393 hour 45 min July 1, 2011 9:53 AM ZA001 485 flights 1203 hour 35 min Total RR engine 1189 flights 3311 hour 00 min ZA005 241 flights 620 hour 0 min Total GE engine 325 flights 886 hour 30 min Total 1514 flights 4197 hour 30 min June 29, 2011 12:31 PM ZA001 484 flights 1198 hour 45 min Total RR engine 1180 flights 3278 hour 55 min ZA005 241 flights 620 hour 0 min Total GE engine 323 flights 878 hour 20 min Total 1503 flights 4157 hour 15 min Boeing web site reports 4156 hours and 50 minutes June 28, 2011 2:04 PM ZA001 483 flights 1189 hour 55 min Total RR engine 1173 flights 3242 hour 40 min ZA005 241 flights 620 hour 0 min Total GE engine 322 flights 874 hour 35 min Total 1495 flights 4117 hour 15 min June 27, 2011 9:48 AM ZA001 480 flights 1185 hour 15 min Total RR engine 1160 flights 3179 hour 15 min ZA005 241 flights 620 hour 0 min Total GE engine 312 flights 860 hour 30 min Total 1472 flights 4039 hour 45 min Boeing web site says 1478 flights 4038 hours 45 minutes June 21, 2011 9:56 AM ZA001 479 flights 1174 hour 50 min Total RR engine 1157 flights 3151 hour 35 min ZA005 239 flights 616 hour 40 min Total GE engine 308 flights 851 hour 30 min Total 1465 flights 4003 hour 05 min June 20, 2011 10:39 AM ZA001 479 flights 1174 hour 50 min Total RR engine 1157 flights 3151 hour 35 min ZA005 238 flights 615 hour 15 min Total GE engine 306 flights 845 hour 40 min Total 1463 flights 3997 hour 15 min June 17, 2011 9:24 AM ZA001 479 flights 1174 hour 50 min Total RR engine 1156 flights 3146 hour 30 min ZA005 237 flights 613 hour 25 min Total GE engine 305 flights 843 hour 50 min Total 1461 flights 3990 hour 20 min June 16, 2011 2:30 PM ZA001 477 flights 1173 hour 00 min Total RR engine 1153 flights 3135 hour 10 min ZA005 235 flights 612 hour 40 min Total GE engine 303 flights 842 hour 05 min Total 1456 flights 3977 hour 15 min June 15, 2011 9:37 AM ZA001 477 flights 1173 hour 00 min Total RR engine 1152 flights 3126 hour 40 min ZA005 235 flights 612 hour 40 min Total GE engine 302 flights 841 hour 20 min Total 1454 flights 3967 hour 00 min June 14, 2011 8:53 AM ZA001 477 flights 1173 hour 00 min Total RR engine 1150 flights 3116 hour 00 min ZA005 233 flights 612 hour 20 min Total GE engine 300 flights 841 hour 00 min Total 1450 flights 3957 hour 00 min June 13, 2011 11:36 AM ZA001 476 flights 1170 hour 40 min Total RR engine 1146 flights 3104 hour 55 min ZA005 233 flights 612 hour 20 min Total GE engine 299 flights 834 hour 30 min Total 1445 flights 3939 hour 25 min June 10, 2011 4:29 PM ZA001 473 flights 1167 hour 05 min Total RR engine 1135 flights 3053 hour 30 min ZA005 228 flights 610 hour 40 min Total GE engine 290 flights 816 hour 20 min Total 1425 flights 3869 hour 50 min June 8, 2011 9:49 AM ZA001 472 flights 1163 hour 15 min Total RR engine 1128 flights 3030 hour 25 min ZA005 225 flights 607 hour 30 min Total GE engine 285 flights 811 hour 10 min Total 1413 flights 3841 hour 35 min June 6, 2011 3:19 PM ZA001 472 flights 1163 hour 15 min Total RR engine 1124 flights 3022 hour 05 min ZA005 219 flights 600 hour 45 min Total GE engine 279 flights 804 hour 25 min Total 1403 flights 3826 hour 30 min June 1, 2011 3:39 PM ZA001 472 flights 1163 hour 15 min Total RR engine 1120 flights 3008 hour 55 min ZA005 216 flights 599 hour 20 min Total GE engine 276 flights 803 hour 00 min Total 1396 flights 3813 hour 40 min My arithmetic says the total should be 3811 hour 55 min May 31, 2011 No update May 27, 2011 2:11 PM ZA001 472 flights 1163 hour 15 min Total RR engine 1119 flights 3007 hour 10 min ZA005 216 flights 599 hour 20 min Total GE engine 276 flights 803 hour 00 min Total 1395 flights 3811 hour 55 min My arithmetic says the total should be 3810 hour 10 min May 26, 2011 9:11 AM ZA001 472 flights 1163 hour 15 min Total RR engine 1118 flights 3003 hour 55 min ZA005 216 flights 599 hour 20 min Total GE engine 276 flights 803 hour 00 min Total 1394 flights 3808 hour 40 min My arithmetic says the total should be 3806 hour 55 min May 25, 2011 10:03 AM ZA001 470 flights 1157 hour 25 min Total RR engine 1115 flights 2992 hour 00 min ZA005 215 flights 596 hour 35 min Total GE engine 275 flights 800 hour 15 min Total 1390 flights 3794 hour 00 min My arithmetic says the total should be 3792 hour 15 min
May 24, 2011 11:27 AM ZA001 468 flights 1153 hour 10 min Total RR engine 1111 flights 2982 hour 20 min ZA005 214 flights 595 hour 55 min Total GE engine 274 flights 799 hour 35 min Total 1385 flights 3783 hour 40 min My arithmetic says the total should be 3781 hour 55 min May 23, 2011 10:07 AM ZA001 465 flights 1149 hour 35 min Total RR engine 1107 flights 2977 hour 45 min ZA005 213 flights 592 hour 45 min Total GE engine 273 flights 796 hour 25 min Total 1380 flights 3775 hour 55 min My arithmetic says the total should be 3774 hour 10 min May 20, 2011 8:30 AM ZA001 461 flights 1141 hour 50 min Total RR engine 1100 flights 2959 hour 15 min ZA005 211 flights 592 hour 10 min Total GE engine 271 flights 795 hour 50 min Total 1371 flights 3755 hour 05 min Boeing web site reports 3756 hour 05 min May 18, 2011 10:24 AM ZA001 457 flights 1132 hour 25 min Total RR engine 1094 flights 2948 hour 05 min ZA005 209 flights 590 hour 55 min Total GE engine 269 flights 794 hour 35 min Total 1363 flights 3742 hour 40 min by my total; Boeing web site shows 1361 flights 3733 hr 50 min May 17, 2011 12:25 PM ZA001 456 flights 1127 hour 20 min Total RR engine 1093 flights 2943 hour 00 min ZA005 208 flights 587 hour 10 min Total GE engine 268 flights 790 hour 50 min Total 1361 flights 3733 hour 50 min
May 16, 2011 3:56 PM ZA001 453 flights 1123 hour 55 min Total RR engine 1090 flights 2939 hour 35 min ZA005 208 flights 587 hour 10 min Total GE engine 268 flights 790 hour 50 min Total 1358 flights 3730 hour 25 min May 13, 2011 12:50 PM ZA001 450 flights 1115 hour 20 min Total RR engine 1083 flights 2923 hour 15 min ZA005 207 flights 586 hour 20 min Total GE engine 267 flights 790 hour 00 min Total 1350 flights 3713 hour 15 min May 12, 2011 8:12 AM ZA001 449 flights 1113 hour 55 min Total RR engine 1081 flights 2915 hour 45 min ZA005 205 flights 583 hour 05 min Total GE engine 265 flights 786 hour 45 min Total 1346 flights 3702 hour 30 min May 11, 2011 8:29 AM ZA001 447 flights 1110 hour 30 min Total RR engine 1078 flights 2904 hour 30 min ZA005 205 flights 583 hour 05 min Total GE engine 265 flights 786 hour 45 min Total 1343 flights 3691 hour 15 min May 10, 2011 12:52 PM ZA001 445 flights 1107 hour 05 min Total RR engine 1074 flights 2897 hour 25 min ZA005 205 flights 583 hour 05 min Total GE engine 265 flights 786 hour 45 min Total 1339 flights 3684 hour 10 min May 9, 2011 8:38 AM ZA001 442 flights 1101 hour 40 min Total RR engine 1070 flights 2889 hour 20 min ZA005 205 flights 583 hour 05 min Total GE engine 265 flights 786 hour 45 min Total 1335 flights 3676 hour 05 min May 6, 2011 11:04 AM ZA001 439 flights 1093 hour 55 min Total RR engine 1064 flights 2873 hour 30 min ZA005 205 flights 583 hour 05 min Total GE engine 265 flights 786 hour 45 min Total 1329 flights 3660 hour 15 min May 5, 2011 No update from Boeing. May 4, 2011 There was no update on the Boeing Flight test site although ZA002 did fly 2 hours and 16 minutes on Tuesday according to flightaware. May 3, 2011 12:06 PM ZA001 438 flights 1091 hour 45 min Total RR engine 1060 flights 2861 hour 55 min ZA005 203 flights 577 hour 35 min Total GE engine 259 flights 765 hour 25 min Total 1319 flights 3627 hour 20 min May 2, 2011 10:27 AM ZA001 437 flights 1089 hour 45 min Total RR engine 1058 flights 2853 hour 35 min ZA005 203 flights 577 hour 35 min Total GE engine 258 flights 759 hour 45 min Total 1316 flights 3613 hour 20 min April 29, 2011 9:31 AM ZA001 434 flights 1084 hour 40 min Total RR engine 1052 flights 2839 hour 10 min ZA005 200 flights 573 hour 45 min Total GE engine 255 flights 755 hour 55 min Total 1307 flights 3595 hour 05 min April 28, 2011 8:10 AM ZA001 434 flights 1084 hour 40 min Total RR engine 1052 flights 2839 hour 10 min ZA005 199 flights 571 hour 40 min Total GE engine 251 flights 752 hour 45 min Total 1303 flights 3591 hour 55 min April 27, 2011 8:11 AM ZA001 432 flights 1081 hour 20 min Total RR engine 1049 flights 2831 hour 50 min ZA005 197 flights 567 hour 00 min Total GE engine 246 flights 742 hour 25 min Total 1295 flights 3574 hour 15 min April 26, 2011 8:35 AM ZA001 431 flights 1080 hour 00 min Total RR engine 1043 flights 2817 hour 50 min ZA005 196 flights 563 hour 25 min Total GE engine 244 flights 736 hour 50 min Total 1287 flights 3554 hour 40 min April 25, 2011 8:35 AM ZA001 429 flights 1075 hour 20 min Total RR engine 1037 flights 2806 hour 55 min ZA005 195 flights 560 hour 05 min Total GE engine 243 flights 733 hour 30 min Total 1280 flights 3540 hour 25 min April 23, 2011 4:11 PM ZA001 426 flights 1069 hour 15 min Total RR engine 1030 flights 2794 hour 20 min ZA005 193 flights 549 hour 50 min Hasn't flown since March 26. Total GE engine 240 flights 722 hour 45 min Total 1270 flights 3517 hour 05 min April 22, 2011 8:41 AM ZA001 425 flights 1064 hour 35 min Total RR engine 1026 flights 2779 hour 00 min ZA005 193 flights 549 hour 50 min Hasn't flown since March 26. Total GE engine 240 flights 722 hour 45 min Total 1266 flights 3501 hour 45 min April 21, 2011 7:58 AM ZA001 423 flights 1062 hour 10 min Total RR engine 1022 flights 2772 hour 30 min ZA005 193 flights 549 hour 50 min Hasn't flown since March 26. Total GE engine 240 flights 722 hour 45 min Total 1262 flights 3495 hour 15 min April 20, 2011 8:46 AM ZA001 423 flights 1062 hour 10 min Total RR engine 1020 flights 2768 hour 40 min ZA005 193 flights 549 hour 50 min Hasn't flown since March 26. Total GE engine 240 flights 722 hour 45 min Total 1260 flights 3491 hour 25 min April 19, 2011 10:29 AM ZA001 421 flights 1056 hour 05 min Total RR engine 1018 flights 2762 hour 35 min ZA005 193 flights 549 hour 50 min Hasn't flown since March 26. Total GE engine 240 flights 722 hour 45 min Total 1258 flights 3485 hour 20 min April 18, 2011 9:47 AM ZA001 419 flights 1053 hour 10 min Total RR engine 1012 flights 2753 hour 05 min ZA005 193 flights 549 hour 50 min Hasn't flown since March 26. Total GE engine 240 flights 722 hour 45 min Total 1252 flights 3476 hour 50 min April 15, 2011 10:15 AM ZA001 413 flights 1042 hour 20 min Total RR engine 997 flights 2729 hour 15 min ZA005 193 flights 549 hour 50 min Total GE engine 240 flights 722 hour 45 min Total 1237 flights 3452 hour 00 min April 14, 2011 8:11 AM ZA001 412 flights 1038 hour 50 min Total RR engine 994 flights 2720 hour 40 min ZA005 193 flights 549 hour 50 min Total GE engine 240 flights 722 hour 45 min Total 1234 flights 3443 hour 25 min April 13, 2011 2:54 PM ZA001 411 flights 1035 hour 55 min Total RR engine 990 flights 2711 hour 45 min ZA005 193 flights 549 hour 50 min Total GE engine 240 flights 722 hour 45 min Total 1230 flights 3434 hour 30 min Boeing web site reports 3430 hours and 30 minutes April 12, 2011 11:55 AM ZA001 407 flights 1028 hour 55 min Total RR engine 985 flights 2703 hour 10 min ZA005 193 flights 549 hour 50 min Total GE engine 240 flights 722 hour 45 min Total 1225 flights 3425 hour 55 min April 11, 2011 2:44 PM ZA001 403 flights 1021 hour 15 min Total RR engine 979 flights 2688 hour 25 min ZA005 193 flights 549 hour 50 min Total GE engine 240 flights 722 hour 45 min Total 1219 flights 3411 hour 10 min Boeing web site says 3411 hours and 20 minutes April 8, 2011 12:08 PM ZA001 400 flights 1018 hour 15 min Total RR engine 970 flights 2669 hour 40 min ZA005 193 flights 549 hour 50 min Total GE engine 240 flights 722 hour 45 min Total 1210 flights 3392 hour 25 min Boeing web site says 3392 hours and 10 minutes April 7, 2011 8:33 AM ZA001 395 flights 1014 hour 00 min Total RR engine 961 flights 2654 hour 25 min ZA005 193 flights 549 hour 50 min Total GE engine 240 flights 722 hour 45 min Total 1201 flights 3377 hour 10 min April 6, 2011 8:15 AM ZA001 394 flights 1012 hour 25 min Total RR engine 956 flights 2646 hour 35 min ZA005 193 flights 549 hour 50 min Total GE engine 240 flights 722 hour 45 min Total 1196 flights 3369 hour 20 min April 5, 2011 8:52 AM ZA001 390 flights 1005 hour 35 min Total RR engine 948 flights 2632 hour 40 min ZA005 193 flights 549 hour 50 min Total GE engine 240 flights 722 hour 45 min Total 1188 flights 3355 hour 25 min April 4, 2011 8:33 AM ZA001 387 flights 1002 hour 35 min Total RR engine 943 flights 2622 hour 00 min ZA005 193 flights 549 hour 50 min Total GE engine 240 flights 722 hour 45 min Total 1183 flights 3344 hour 45 min April 1, 2011 8:22 AM ZA001 382 flights 988 hour 05 min Total RR engine 927 flights 2598 hour 35 min ZA005 193 flights 549 hour 50 min Total GE engine 238 flights 719 hour 15 min Total 1165 flights 3317 hour 50 min Boeing's web site reports 1165 flights 3314 hours 50 minutes. March 31, 2011 9:28 AM ZA001 381 flights 984 hour 55 min Total RR engine 925 flights 2590 hour 10 min ZA005 193 flights 549 hour 50 min Total GE engine 238 flights 719 hour 15 min Total 1163 flights 3309 hour 25 min March 30, 2011 8:08 AM ZA001 377 flights 980 hour 55 min Total RR engine 920 flights 2584 hour 30 min ZA005 193 flights 549 hour 50 min Total GE engine 238 flights 719 hour 15 min Total 1158 flights 3303 hour 45 min March 29, 2011 8:12 AM ZA001 374 flights 976 hour 15 min Total RR engine 916 flights 2564 hour 45 min ZA005 193 flights 549 hour 50 min Total GE engine 238 flights 719 hour 15 min Total 1154 flights 3284 hour 00 min March 28, 2011 8:46 AM ZA001 372 flights 970 hour 20 min Total RR engine 913 flights 2557 hour 25 min ZA005 193 flights 549 hour 50 min Total GE engine 238 flights 719 hour 15 min Total 1151 flights 3276 hour 40 min March 25, 2011 8:17 AM ZA001 363 flights 957 hour 25 min Total RR engine 897 flights 2529 hour 05 min ZA005 191 flights 543 hour 00 min Total GE engine 236 flights 712 hour 25 min Total 1133 flights 3241 hour 30 min March 24, 2011 10:03 AM ZA001 360 flights 952 hour 15 min Total RR engine 891 flights 2519 hour 15 min ZA005 190 flights 540 hour 10 min Total GE engine 234 flights 701 hour 10 min Total 1125 flights 3220 hour 25 min March 23, 2011 8:23 AM ZA001 359 flights 949 hour 30 min Total RR engine 887 flights 2509 hour 55 min ZA005 189 flights 538 hour 10 min Total GE engine 233 flights 699 hour 10 min Total 1120 flights 3209 hour 05 min March 22, 2011 9:27 AM ZA001 357 flights 944 hour 05 min Total RR engine 882 flights 2500 hour 10 min ZA005 187 flights 536 hour 10 min Total GE engine 230 flights 691 hour 00 min Total 1112 flights 3191 hour 10 min March 21, 2011 8:11 AM ZA001 355 flights 936 hour 50 min Total RR engine 879 flights 2492 hour 30 min ZA005 184 flights 534 hour 50 min Total GE engine 227 flights 689 hour 40 min Total 1106 flights 3182 hour 10 min March 18, 2011 3:11 PM ZA001 350 flights 927 hour 45 min Total RR engine 871 flights 2480 hour 10 min ZA005 178 flights 531 hour 15 min Total GE engine 219 flights 681 hour 15 min Total 1090 flights 3161 hour 25 min The Rolls Royce 787s completed less than 12 hours of flights this, the lowest weekly total except when the planes weren't flying at all in late November and early December. March 17, 2011 8:39 AM ZA001 350 flights 927 hour 45 min Total RR engine 870 flights 2478 hour 40 min ZA005 176 flights 530 hour 20 min Total GE engine 217 flights 680 hour 20 min Total 1087 flights 3159 hour 00 min March 16, 2011 8:52 AM ZA001 350 flights 927 hour 45 min Total RR engine 869 flights 2475 hour 10 min ZA005 174 flights 529 hour 25 min Total GE engine 215 flights 679 hour 25 min Total 1084 flights 3154 hour 35 min The Rolls Royce 787s are not flying. 7 hours of flights in the last 7 days. March 15, 2011 4:54 PM No update from Boeing because there were no flights. Rolls Royce-engined 787s have not flown for 4 of the last 8 days. March 14, 2011 8:31 AM ZA001 350 flights 927 hour 45 min Total RR engine 868 flights 2471 hour 40 min ZA005 171 flights 520 hour 20 min Total GE engine 212 flights 670 hour 20 min Total 1080 flights 3142 hour 00 min March 11, 2011 8:52 AM ZA001 350 flights 927 hour 45 min Total RR engine 866 flights 2468 hour 30 min ZA005 169 flights 510 hour 45 min Total GE engine 210 flights 660 hour 45 min Total 1076 flights 3129 hour 15 min None of the 787s that use Rolls Royce engines have flown for more than 2 days, and they have flown only 30 hours in the last week, an average of less than 1 hour per day per plane. March 10, 2011 10:07 AM No update on Boeing web site today. According to FlightAware, the only flight yesterday was ZA005 - 2 flights for a total of 61 minutes. Flight tests of the Rolls Royce engine 787s has been at a very low ebb for 4 weeks. According to FlightAware, ZA002 has not flown since February 18. According to Flightaware, ZA102 has not flown since February 9. March 9, 2011 8:25 AM ZA001 350 flights 927 hour 45 min Total RR engine 866 flights 2468 hour 30 min ZA005 166 flights 503 hour 30 min Total GE engine 207 flights 653 hour 30 min Total 1073 flights 3122 hour 00 min March 8, 2011 8:22 AM ZA001 350 flights 927 hour 45 min Total RR engine 864 flights 2463 hour 40 min ZA005 165 flights 498 hour 45 min Total GE engine 206 flights 648 hour 45 min Total 1070 flights 3112 hour 25 min March 7, 2011 8:20 AM ZA001 350 flights 927 hour 45 min Total RR engine 863 flights 2462 hour 25 min ZA005 162 flights 495 hour 45 min Total GE engine 202 flights 641 hour 15 min Total 1065 flights 3103 hour 40 min March 3, 2011 8:29 AM ZA001 344 flights 912 hour 20 min Total RR engine 853 flights 2434 hour 10 min ZA005 158 flights 487 hour 30 min Total GE engine 196 flights 623 hour 55 min Total 1049 flights 3058 hour 05 min The 787-8s using the Rolls Royce engine reached the 2430 cumulative flight hours that Boeing had said would be necessary to complete the test program. This comes after nearly 15 months of testing and is nearly 6 months after the predicted date for reaching that goal. What we don't know is how many additional hours are necessary to complete testing because of the problems that have plagued the test program. March 2, 2011 8:47 AM ZA001 341 flights 908 hour 10 min Total RR engine 849 flights 2424 hour 40 min ZA005 157 flights 480 hour 45 min Total GE engine 195 flights 617 hour 10 min Total 1044 flights 3041 hour 50 min March 1, 2011 12:47 PM ZA001 338 flights 903 hour 00 min Total RR engine 842 flights 2414 hour 05 min ZA005 154 flights 475 hour 50 min Total GE engine 191 flights 609 hour 45 min Total 1033 flights 3023 hour 50 min February 28, 2011 8:53 AM ZA001 336 flights 898 hour 10 min Total RR engine 838 flights 2405 hour 00 min ZA005 153 flights 473 hour 20 min Total GE engine 188 flights 603 hour 05 min Total 1026 flights 3008 hour 05 min February 25, 2011 8:36 AM ZA001 331 flights 888 hour 20 min Total RR engine 826 flights 2386 hour 35 min ZA005 149 flights 462 hour 20 min Total GE engine 182 flights 587 hour 35 min Total 1008 flights 2974 hour 10 min Test hours for the 787s that use the Rolls Royce engine have declined sharply for 2 weeks. There were only 44 hours of test flights a week ago and only 34 hours this week. I said it a week ago, but I will say it again - when this sort of slowdown has happened before it has been a precursor of a problem announcement. February 24, 2011 9:34 AM ZA001 330 flights 885 hour 30 min Total RR engine 825 flights 2383 hour 45 min ZA005 148 flights 458 hour 50 min Total GE engine 181 flights 584 hour 05 min Total 1006 flights 2967 hour 50 min February 23, 2011 8:00 AM ZA001 329 flights 882 hour 35 min Total RR engine 821 flights 2379 hour 35 min ZA005 146 flights 457 hour 40 min Total GE engine 178 flights 582 hour 10 min Total 999 flights 2961 hour 45 min February 22, 2011 9:41 AM ZA001 327 flights 878 hour 05 min Total RR engine 818 flights 2374 hour 25 min ZA005 145 flights 454 hour 05 min Total GE engine 176 flights 575 hour 30 min Total 994 flights 2949 hour 55 min February 21, 2011 8:03 AM ZA001 324 flights 874 hour 35 min Total RR engine 812 flights 2360 hour 55 min ZA005 143 flights 451 hour 20 min Total GE engine 173 flights 569 hour 30 min Total 985 flights 2930 hour 25 min Only 21 hours of flights in 3 days, and only 8 hours of flights in the critical Rolls Royce engine group , an average of just over 1/2 hour per day for each of the 5 test planes. In the past this lack of activity has been followed by a notification of major problem. February 18, 2011 9:43 AM ZA001 323 flights 872 hour 15 min Total RR engine 807 flights 2352 hour 35 min ZA005 140 flights 438 hour 40 min Total GE engine 170 flights 556 hour 50 min Total 977 flights 2909 hour 25 min Flight hours have declined sharply in the last 10 days, only 44 hours of flights for the 5 RR-engined planes this week, an average of 1.25 hours per plane per day. In the past year this sort of test decline has been a precursor to bad news. February 17, 2011 9:25 AM No update from Boeing. According to FlightAware.com ZA001, ZA002, and ZA003 flew 4 flights for a combined 4 hours and 45 minutes. February 16, 2011 8:17 AM ZA001 320 flights 867 hour 35 min Total RR engine 801 flights 2343 hour 10 min ZA005 138 flights 431 hour 55 min Total GE engine 168 flights 550 hour 05 min Total 969 flights 2893 hour 15 min February 15, 2011 8:19 AM ZA001 319 flights 865 hour 30 min Total RR engine 797 flights 2330 hour 40 min ZA005 136 flights 429 hour 45 min Total GE engine 166 flights 547 hour 55 min Total 963 flights 2878 hour 35 min February 14, 2011 9:21 AM ZA001 317 flights 860 hour 30 min Total RR engine 792 flights 2320 hour 55 min ZA005 135 flights 426 hour 40 min Total GE engine 165 flights 544 hour 50 min Total 957 flights 2865 hour 45 min February 11, 2011 8:19 AM ZA001 312 flights 850 hour 20 min Total RR engine 785 flights 2308 hour 20 min ZA005 132 flights 417 hour 15 min Total GE engine 162 flights 535 hour 25 min Total 947 flights 2843 hour 45 min February 10, 2011 8.23 AM ZA001 310 flights 844 hour 30 min Total RR engine 783 flights 2302 hour 30 min ZA005 130 flights 411 hour 35 min Total GE engine 160 flights 529 hour 45 min Total 943 flights 2832 hour 15 min February 9, 2011 10.11 AM ZA001 308 flights 840 hour 40 min Total RR engine 778 flights 2288 hour 30 min ZA005 129 flights 407 hour 45 min Total GE engine 158 flights 517 hour 30 min Total 936 flights 2806 hour 00 min February 8, 2011 8.25 AM ZA001 307 flights 838 hour 25 min Total RR engine 775 flights 2282 hour 30 min ZA005 128 flights 405 hour 35 min Total GE engine 157 flights 515 hour 20 min Total 932 flights 2797 hour 50 min February 7, 2011 8.22 AM ZA001 305 flights 833 hour 45 min Total RR engine 768 flights 2267 hour 20 min ZA005 128 flights 405 hour 35 min Total GE engine 156 flights 513 hour 25 min Total 924 flights 2780 hour 45 min February 4, 2011 8.08 AM ZA001 301 flights 825 hour 15 min Total RR engine 762 flights 2251 hour 40 min ZA005 128 flights 405 hour 35 min Total GE engine 153 flights 505 hour 55 min Total 915 flights 2757 hour 35 min February 3, 2011 8.38 AM ZA001 300 flights 821 hour 10 min Total RR engine 760 flights 2239 hour 45 min ZA005 126 flights 398 hour 25 min Total GE engine 150 flights 496 hour 35 min Total 910 flights 2736 hour 20 min February 2, 2011 9.08 AM ZA001 298 flights 815 hour 05 min Total RR engine 754 flights 2228 hour 35 min ZA005 125 flights 393 hour 45 min Total GE engine 149 flights 491 hour 55 min Total 903 flights 2720 hour 30 min February 1, 2011 8.44 AM ZA001 297 flights 811 hour 30 min Total RR engine 749 flights 2214 hour 30 min ZA005 125 flights 393 hour 45 min Total GE engine 148 flights 489 hour 45 min Total 897 flights 2704 hour 15 min January 31, 2011 8.07 AM ZA001 295 flights 807 hour 05 min Total RR engine 745 flights 2204 hour 15 min ZA005 124 flights 392 hour 55 min Total GE engine 146 flights 487 hour 40 min Total 891 flights 2691 hour 55 min January 29, 2011 10.55 AM ZA001 290 flights 799 hour 30 min Total RR engine 732 flights 2185 hour 40 min ZA005 122 flights 385 hour 20 min Total GE engine 142 flights 469 hour 40 min Total 874 flights 2655 hour 20 min January 28, 2011 8.01 AM ZA001 290 flights 799 hour 30 min Total RR engine 728 flights 2178 hour 05 min ZA005 119 flights 379 hour 30 min Total GE engine 138 flights 462 hour 15 min Total 866 flights 2640 hour 20 min January 27, 2011 10.03 AM No update from Boeing today. According to FlightAware.com there were a few short flights yesterday. Another day or so will tell us whether this is the normal quiet period after the earnings announcement when no flights occur because they all were forced into the days before the earnings announcement. January 26, 2011 8.20 AM ZA001 290 flights 799 hour 30 min Total RR engine 724 flights 2167 hour 30 min ZA005 118 flights 379 hour 10 min Total GE engine 136 flights 460 hour 15 min Total 860 flights 2627 hour 45 min Yesterday was maximum effort. 4 Dreamliners airborne on the day before earnings were announced. Boeing has done this for the past 4 quarters, a surge of flights just before meeting Wall Street and then a fall back after. January 25, 2011 10.12 AM ZA001 289 flights 791 hour 40 min Total RR engine 718 flights 2152 hour 40 min ZA005 117 flights 374 hour 30 min Total GE engine 135 flights 455 hour 35 min Total 853 flights 2608 hour 15 min Matt Cawby at the Paine Field Blog reports that Dreamliner # 23 has been fitted with engines and appears to be fitting out for testing. Matt doesn't speculate, but does ask the question, "why would Boeing skip over #7, and #10 through #22 to outfit #23?" Is # 23 going to be the first customer aircraft delivered? If so, what happens to the others. The plane that is particularly noticeable is all this is #7, which had been assumed to be the launch airplane. It sits forlorn. Clint Liu has reported that he believes that #7 will never be delivered. January 24, 2011 8.04 AM ZA001 288 flights 785 hour 10 min Total RR engine 715 flights 2138 hour 40 min ZA005 116 flights 373 hour 05 min Total GE engine 134 flights 454 hour 10 min Total 849 flights 2592 hour 50 min January 19, 2011 8.24 AM ZA001 277 flights 759 hour 20 min Total RR engine 695 flights 2097 hour 10 min ZA005 106 flights 347 hour 00 min Total GE engine 124 flights 428 hour 05 min Total 819 flights 2525 hour 15 min Yesterday Boeing announced that first delivery would be in the 3rd quarter. I believe this will be a difficult target. When ZA002 went down on November 9 I estimated that Boeing needed about 3.5 months of testing to complete. I have not seen any report about how many additional hours will be needed because of the fire on ZA002, but my guess is that it will be several hundred hours of additional tests, or about 2 extra months of testing. If I am close to correct testing of the Rolls Royce portion of the test program will complete in July. Expect about 3 months of FAA review after that. First delivery would be pushed back to October, and only then if no other problems occur. January 17, 2011 3.23 PM ZA001 276 flights 756 hour 40 min Total RR engine 691 flights 2088 hour 30 min ZA005 105 flights 336 hour 40 min Total GE engine 123 flights 417 hour 45 min Total 814 flights 2506 hour 15 min January 14, 2011 10.06 AM ZA001 274 flights 746 hour 30 min Total RR engine 686 flights 2076 hour 35 min ZA005 102 flights 312 hour 40 min Total GE engine 120 flights 393 hour 45 min Total 806 flights 2470 hour 20 min The 787s using Rolls Royce engines have averaged about 4 hours of flights for the last 8 days, which is up from less than 1 hour a day average from the resumption of testing on December 23 to January 5. At this pace it will take 6 months or more to complete flight testing. I assume that flight testing will speed up if Boeing is able to do so. January 13, 2011 12.25 PM ZA001 273 flights 743 hour 40 min Total RR engine 685 flights 2073 hour 45 min ZA005 101 flights 303 hour 35 min Total GE engine 119 flights 384 hour 40 min Total 804 flights 2458 hour 25 min January 12, 2011 11.16 AM ZA001 273 flights 743 hour 40 min Total RR engine 684 flights 2072 hour 50 min ZA005 100 flights 294 hour 55 min Total GE engine 118 flights 376 hour 00 min Total 802 flights 2448 hour 50 min January 11, 2011 8.16 AM ZA001 272 flights 736 hour 00 min Total RR engine 682 flights 2064 hour 10 min ZA005 99 flights 293 hour 05 min Total GE engine 117 flights 374 hour 10 min Total 799 flights 2438 hour 20 min January 10, 2011 8.39 AM ZA001 269 flights 731 hour 30 min Total RR engine 679 flights 2059 hour 40 min ZA005 96 flights 288 hour 10 min Total GE engine 114 flights 369 hour 15 min Total 793 flights 2428 hour 55 min 3 weeks after Boeing announced the "resumption of flight testing" only 2 787s, ZA001 and ZA004 have flown. There have been no flights by GE-engined 787s. January 6, 2011 9.31 AM ZA001 263 flights 715 hour 15 min Total RR engine 667 flights 2039 hour 25 min ZA005 96 flights 288 hour 10 min Total GE engine 114 flights 369 hour 15 min Total 781 flights 2408 hour 40 min The hourly totals are reduced from the previous report. Boeing corrected the reported hours for ZA003. January 4, 2011 9.25 AM ZA001 262 flights 712 hour 25 min Total RR engine 664 flights 2042 hour 45 min ZA005 96 flights 288 hour 10 min Total GE engine 114 flights 369 hour 15 min Total 778 flights 2412 hour 15 min (Boeing report) By my arithmetic the total should be 2412 hours and 00 minutes. December 28, 2010 8:17 AM Since Boeing "resumed 787 testing" with much publicity on December 23, 2010 there has been exactly one flight by ZA004 for a duration of 1 hour and 35 minutes according to FlightAware December 25, 2010 12.55 PM ZA001 262 flights 712 hour 25 min Total RR engine 662 flights 2040 hour 00 min ZA005 96 flights 288 hour 10 min Total GE engine 114 flights 369 hour 15 min Total 776 flights 2399 hour 15 min (Boeing reported total) My arithmetic comes to 776 flights 2409 hours and 15 minutes. After reviewing the numbers at the All Things 787 blog, I believe that the hours for ZA003 are over-stated and that the real total is 335 hours for ZA003 and the grand total reported by Boeing is correct. December 23, 2010 Boeing is scheduled to test fly ZA004 today. Boeing: Lost in Translation? Edmonds, WA " The Friendliest Town on Puget Sound "December 20, 2010 For additional information contact: Tim Raetzloff 425 670 8167 At Abarim Business Computers, Inc. The headline in the Chicago Sun-Times says, "Qatar Air Sticks by Boeing 787". The headline in the Everett Herald says, "Qatar Airways sticks with Boeing 787 despite delays." The headline at KING5 says, "Qatar Airways sticks by Boeing 787 despite delays." This all sounds positive. The outburst from Qatar Airways CEO, Akbar Al-Baker, 3 weeks ago is a thing of the past and now all is well between Boeing and Qatar Airways. But the headline at MENAFN (Middle East North Africa Financial Network).com says, "Qatar Airways threatens to scrap Boeing 787 order". And the headline at Arabian Business.com says, "Qatar Airways may cancel Dreamliner order, says CEO." The Middle Eastern media seems to have heard a totally different story from Al-Baker. In late November Akbar Al-Baker, the CEO of Qatar Airways, was widely quoted saying , "Boeing's 787 program has very clearly failed. When you put a company in the hands of accountants you will always get garbage out." The significance of those angry words is that Qatar Airways has ordered 30 787s and seemed to be looking for a way to cancel. On December 18, 2010 at ceremonies in Doha, Qatar opening a new arrival terminal at Doha International Airport, Al-Baker spoke to the assembled media. It seems that at least some of the United States media reported a much more glass-half-full than the Middle Eastern media. I have not found a verbatim record of what Al-Baker said, but, piecing together the various reports, it appears that he said that he would not cancel the 787 order at this time, but if Boeing is unable to deliver by the end of 2011, as contractually required, he would find it necessary to cancel the order. I will try not to put words into Mr Al-Baker's mouth, but it sounds to me as if the attorneys for Qatar Airways have gotten to him since late November and told him that he simply can not go around calling the Boeing 787 "garbage" without consequences from one of only 2 companies in the world that can supply him airplanes. So now he says, sounding very legal, that Qatar Airways will abide by its contractual agreement if Boeing will also and deliver 787s in 2011. It is clear that Boeing cannot possibly deliver any 787 to Qatar Airways in 2011. The first fuselage scheduled to become a Qatar Airways 787 is #57. According to All things 787, 787 #31 is to begin final assembly on December 22, 2010, #32 is to begin final assembly on January 13, 2011, and #33 will begin final assembly on January 25, 2011. If that production schedule is maintained, and everything goes perfectly, the first Qatar Airways 787, #57, will begin final assembly in late January 2012. Completion and tests would push the delivery back to mid-year 2012, and all of this if there are no additional delays. It appears that Mr Al-Baker, probably at the advice of his legal staff, has requested that Boeing make him a Cambric shirt without seam or needlework. Then Boeing will be a true love again. In fairness to Boeing that is probably no more possible than it was for the "true love" of "Scarborough Fair". I remain short Boeing. December 6, 2010 4 weeks since the fire on ZA002, and still no updated test schedule from Boeing. The test program now seems likely to go to mid-2011. Chicago Tribune has an unflattering article about the 787 at: http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-biz-1205-787-delay-20101204,0,5279421.story Boeing: When and at What Cost? Edmonds, WA " The Friendliest Town on Puget Sound "November 29, 2010 For additional information contact: Tim Raetzloff 425 670 8167 At Abarim Business Computers, Inc. Three weeks ago I speculated on what excuse Boeing would use for the fire in Dreamliner #2. The answer: "Engineers have determined that the fault began as either a short circuit or an electrical arc in the P100 power distribution panel, most likely caused by the presence of foreign debris." "Whatever this foreign debris was, it wasn't something big - such as a tool - it was probably something small. We're taking the right steps to ensure the power distribution panels are better protected against foreign debris." What of this? A fire caused by "foreign debris" too small to be found and identified. Speculation has been a loose wire, a small bolt, or a small washer. All valid possibilities. Another valid possibility is that the power distribution panel wasn't assembled correctly in the first place and a loose fragment, perhaps a wire, over time, settled where it shouldn't. It is beyond me how the engineers and technicians can tell what the "foreign debris" was when none of the "foreign debris" was found in the ashes. It is disconcerting that the "most advanced" plane on Earth was brought down by "foreign debris" too small to be seen. The flight test program for the 787 Dreamliners that use the Rolls Royce Trent engine was about 3½ months from completion when flight testing was stopped. It may be assumed that some additional testing will be required to validate the "fix" to the power distribution panel. Flight testing may not resume until early 2011. A revised flight test schedule will require 4 to 5 months unless another problem reveals itself. An optimistic completion date of the test schedule is May/June 2011. Then the FAA must scrutinize the test findings before certifying the 787. The delivery of the first production 787 will not happen in mid-February. There is no question that the 787 is going to be more than 3 years late. The 787 Dreamliner was to have been produced in 4 versions with the choice of 2 engines. 787-8 using Rolls Royce engines will be the first variant delivered. The second variant, the 787-8 using GE engines now appears to be about 3½ to 4 years late. The 787-9 version of the Dreamliner will be more than 4 years late. The 787-10 is still a pipe dream, and the 787-3 has been canceled. Didn't Boeing executives mock AirBus for producing the A380 more than 2 years late? At what cost? Boeing is silent. Various analysts have tried to come up with numbers, but everyone is guessing until Boeing gives real numbers. The first guess I heard was more than 12 billion dollars. Heidi Wood of Morgan Stanley guessed cumulative losses of more than 10 billion dollars in a report this year, and now suggests that first delivery may slip into 2012. Others have guessed that the Dreamliner program may be 20 to 22 billion dollars in the red. If the Dreamliner program is 10 billion dollars in the red, the smallest guess, it will require delivery of 1000 Dreamliners to break even. The 767 program just delivered its 1000th aircraft after nearly 30 years of production. The 777 program just delivered its 900th aircraft after 15 years in production. If the pessimists are correct that the Dreamliner program is 20 billion dollars in the red, it will require delivery of 2000 Dreamliners to break even. If Boeing is able to produce 10 Dreamliners a month (the proposed schedule), it will take 200 months, or 17 years, before profit. There is financial toll on Boeing, and on sub-contractors. What happens if a sub-contractor files for bankruptcy? The 787 production chain appears to have many weak links; which will break first? I don't think Boeing can afford to buy them all. Boeing has bought Global Aeronautica (now Boeing Charleston), and is acquiring Summit Aeronautics in Montana. How many more can Boeing afford? Akbar Al-Baker, the CEO of Qatar Airways, was widely quoted this week saying that, "Boeing's 787 program has very clearly failed. When you put a company in the hands of accountants you will always get garbage out." The significance of these angry words is that Qatar Airways has ordered 30 787s and now seems to be looking for a way to cancel. What happens if Qatar cancels and other airlines do the same? China Eastern says that they will probably cancel 15 orders for the 787. All Nippon Airways, the launch customer, is asking for "serious consultation and full disclosure" from Boeing. I disagree with Al-Baker on one point. Boeing is no longer driven by engineering, but I don't think the accountants are in charge either. Accountants wouldn't have allowed the charade to go on this long. I am convinced the PR group runs Boeing. When did Boeing hire Don Draper? I remain short Boeing. November 23, 2010 There have been no test flights and no Boeing updates for 2 weeks. At this moment there is no schedule to resume test flights. If test flights were to resume today, we could expect the completion of the Rolls Royce portion of the test program in mid-March, and certification sometime in June. The GE test flight program looks likely to continue into Autumn 2011. November 15, 2010 No Boeing updates. Clearly the test program will go on well into 2011 and the first delivery will slip to later in the year, the only question is how long and how much will all this cost. Boeing has been very quiet about the cost of 3 years (and counting) of delays. November 11, 2010 The 787 test planes remain grounded and I will have no updates until Boeing updates. Information Release Edmonds, WA " Gateway to the Olympic Peninsula" November 10, 2010 For additional information contact: Tim Raetzloff 425 670 8167 Boeing 787 Mishap My phone began to ring and emails began to come in shortly after Boeing 787, code ZA002, the 2nd of 6 flight-test aircraft in the 787 program, made an emergency landing in Laredo, TX because of smoke in the cabin. I have been a persistent critic of the 787 program, and several people expected me to know something about what was going on. I don't know any more than anyone who watches the news and scans the Internet. I work with statistics, and the statistics of the 787 program have always been worse than Boeing's PR department would like the public to know. The statistics of this latest incident, according to Internet news reports, are that 42 people aboard ZA002 got a scare. The statistics say that at least one person suffered some injury. The statistics say that the pilot brought the plane down with everyone alive. Just 2 weeks before Thanksgiving, this should be a cause for thanksgiving; everyone aboard is able to go home to their families. The Boeing flight test home page shows no test flights scheduled for any of the other 5 test 787s today. This would indicate that Boeing has taken the reasonable precaution of holding test flights until it can determine whether this mishap was a matter of chance or a design problem. The test program will be delayed. The test program was already on a very tight schedule to try to complete in time for a delivery of the first 787 by mid-1st quarter 2011. I had said a few days ago that the number of hours remaining to be completed was too many to permit the schedule to be held. This new delay makes it clear that Boeing must reschedule tests and deliveries. The first Dreamliner, or nightmare liner as it has become for Boeing, delivery will be delayed again. The program will be more than 3 years late before any planes are delivered. This is what we can see with certainty. What is not yet evident is how long the delay will be. Are we talking days or weeks? Is the damage to ZA002 extensive enough that it will not soon return to the test program? If so another airplane will be required to take up the tests scheduled for ZA002. This latest incident is not one that could have been predicted from test statistics, but I admit that my gut feeling has been that there would be an incident sooner or later. I have been accused of an anti-Boeing bias. I admit I am anti-787 and anti-Boeing Chicago. A long time ago in another millennium I was an engineering model maker at Boeing on the ill-fated SST and the successful 747. Everything that I have observed and heard about the 787 is in direct contradiction to what I remember from those programs. The design of the 787 seems to be by committee; to quote Mike Warden, "you just can't design an airplane by committee." The 777 is an out-sourced airplane, but the design was done in Everett by Boeing engineers; the 777 is one of the safest, most successful planes in history. For the 787 Boeing seems to have relied on engineers at sub-contractors to design the parts of the plane that those sub-contractors were building. These are probably fine engineers, but they lack the 5-generation lore that has been passed down within the Boeing Company. Boeing was once an engineering-driven company. Boeing Chicago has turned it into a PR-driven company. PR doesn't build airplanes. Boeing PR has blamed everybody but Boeing for the 3-year delay in the 787 program. It is the fault of Rolls Royce, Alenia, the Machinists Union, or someone else. At some point it must become evident that the fault is in the basic plan. Until the plan is corrected, the program will continue to lurch from failure to failure. Next time we may not be able to be thankful. November 9, 2010 9:31 AM ZA001 259 flights 706 hour 50 min Total RR engine 653 flights 2010 hour 05 min ZA005 94 flights 282 hour 30 min Total GE engine 112 flights 363 hour 35 min Total 765 flights 2373 hour 40 min The Rolls Royce test program reached the significant 2000 hour milestone yesterday. November 8, 2010 8:23 AM ZA001 257 flights 701 hour 35 min Total RR engine 644 flights 1997 hour 25 min ZA005 93 flights 275 hour 25 min Total GE engine 111 flights 356 hour 30 min Total 755 flights 2353 hour 55 min The Boeing web site is confused this morning. I hope that I interpreted the information correctly. Boeing shows a decline of 10 test flights (I think they completed 20 new flights), and the flight minutes on ZA001 has a mistaken extra digit (I have guessed at what I think the digit should be). The GE flight test program rolled out 38 hours, an average of more than 12 a day. The Rolls Royce test program completed less than 26 hours, an average of just over 8 a day. If the flight program still only needs the 500 additional test hours, it may be able to complete by mid-January. However Jon "Flightblogger" Ostrower's report last week that the test program is only 70% complete because of a need to repeat some previously completed tests would indicate that the test program will go on to almost March, putting into serious question any hope to deliver the first Dreamliner by mid-February. November 5, 2010 12:24 PM ZA001 252 flights 690 hour 35 min Total RR engine 629 flights 1971 hour 40 min ZA005 90 flights 248 hour 10 min Total GE engine 106 flights 318 hour 55 min Total 735 flights 2290 hour 35 min The Rolls Royce test program has averaged less than 5 hours of flights a day this week - only 3 hours yesterday. There are 500 hours to go. I confess that I don't see how it is possible for Boeing to complete the test program in time to deliver any aircraft in the first quarter of 2011, unless the delivery is a sham for the benefit of the stock market. November 4, 2010 9:55 AM ZA001 250 flights 687 hour 35 min Total RR engine 627 flights 1968 hour 40 min ZA005 90 flights 248 hour 10 min Total GE engine 105 flights 309 hour 55 min Total 732 flights 2278 hour 35 min Again yesterday, 5 hours of tests for the Rolls Royce test program, 500 hours to go, or possibly more, based on the report at Flightblogger that some tests must be repeated. November 3, 2010 8:28 AM ZA001 248 flights 682 hour 15 min Total RR engine 625 flights 1963 hour 20 min ZA005 89 flights 238 hour 35 min Total GE engine 104 flights 300 hour 20 min Total 729 flights 2263 hour 40 min The Rolls Royce engine test program continues to plod toward completion. Only 5 hours of flight tests yesterday, all by ZA001. November 2, 2010 8:26 AM ZA001 246 flights 677 hour 00 min Total RR engine 623 flights 1958 hour 05 min ZA005 88 flights 231 hour 20 min Total GE engine 103 flights 293 hour 05 min Total 726 flights 2251 hour 10 min November 1, 2010 8:55 AM ZA001 246 flights 677 hour 00 min Total RR engine 621 flights 1951 hour 30 min ZA005 88 flights 231 hour 20 min Total GE engine 103 flights 293 hour 05 min Total 724 flights 2244 hour 35 min The flight test program for the 787s that use GE engines finally began to hit stride in October, logging 116 hours and 45 minutes of test flights during the month. The Rolls Royce engine test program logged about the same number of hours that it has logged for the last 5 months, 226 hours and 20 minutes. In September it was 210 hours, August 224 hours, July 213 hours, June 199 hours. The test program for the Rolls Royce engine 787s is 80% complete after 10.5 months of test flights. Look for another 2.5 months, at least, before the test program is complete sometime in mid-January. October 29, 2010 11:50 AM ZA001 244 flights 671 hour 30 min Total RR engine 617 flights 1934 hour 15 min ZA005 84 flights 209 hour 50 min Total GE engine 97 flights 265 hour 10 min Total 714 flights 2199 hour 25 min October 27, 2010 8:24 AM ZA001 244 flights 671 hour 30 min Total RR engine 612 flights 1915 hour 20 min ZA005 82 flights 193 hour 35 min Total GE engine 94 flights 243 hour 50 min Total 706 flights 2159 hour 10 min The GE-engine flight test program had its best day so far. The Rolls Royce test program, critical to first delivery, had zero hours. The Rolls Royce program is less than 80% complete after 10.4 months. Look for it to finish in January or February unless ther are further delays. October 26, 2010 8:36 AM ZA001 244 flights 671 hour 30 min Total RR engine 612 flights 1915 hour 20 min ZA005 81 flights 188 hour 20 min Total GE engine 91 flights 220 hour 35 min Total 703 flights 2135 hour 55 min Total flight hours went backward because Boeing corrected the number of flights and hours on ZA004. October 25, 2010 8:18 AM ZA001 244 flights 671 hour 30 min Total RR engine 612 flights 1922 hour 10 min ZA005 80 flights 186 hour 30 min Total GE engine 90 flights 218 hour 45 min Total 702 flights 2140 hour 55 min October 22,2010 11:06 AM Ther is no update on the Boeing web site, but FlightAware did show one flight by ZA006. ZA004 is in the air today on the longest flight yet attempted. October 21, 2010 10:01 AM ZA001 244 flights 671 hour 30 min Total RR engine 607 flights 1882 hour 00 min ZA005 78 flights 184 hour 25 min Total GE engine 82 flights 194 hour 05 min Total 689 flights 2076 hour 05 min According to FlightAware.com far more hours were completed yesterday than are reported on the Boeing web site. ZA006 was reported as completing a 9 hour flight. I report here what Boeing reports, so that is what you have . October 20, 2010 8:14 AM ZA001 244 flights 671 hour 30 min Total RR engine 606 flights 1879 hour 05 min ZA005 77 flights 184 hour 15 min Total GE engine 81 flights 193 hour 55 min Total 687 flights 2073 hour 00 min The Rolls Royce engine program completed 10 hours yesterday; at that pace the RR program could finish by Christmas, if the pace is maintained. October 19, 2010 8:20 AM ZA001 241 flights 664 hour 50 min Total RR engine 602 flights 1868 hour 50 min ZA005 77 flights 184 hour 15 min Total GE engine 80 flights 191 hour 25 min Total 682 flights 2060 hour 15 min Only 6 hurs and 50 minutes of flights for the Rolls Royce engine program yesterday. ZA006 is now flying and carried the load for the GE engine program. ZA005 is still grounded under puzzling circumstances. October 18, 2010 8:35 AM ZA001 240 flights 662 hour 20 min Total RR engine 600 flights 1862 hour 00 min ZA005 77 flights 184 hour 15 min Total GE engine 78 flights 185 hour 20 min Total 678 flights 2047 hour 20 min Flight Aware reported 2 flights for ZA006 on Sunday, but those do not show on the Boeing report today. Boeing completed 82 hours and 20 minutes of test flights last week, the best performance in 6 weeks. Boeing executives will be talking to stock market analysts on Wednesday and it seems that Boeing tries to get a lot of flight time the week before those meetings. October 15, 2010 8:57 AM ZA001 238 flights 655 hour 50 min Total RR engine 587 flights 1823 hour 30 min ZA005 77 flights 184 hour 15 min Total GE engine 78 flights 185 hour 20 min Total 665 flights 2008 hour 50 min The 787 flight test program did pass 2000 total flight hours yesterday, but in every other respect it was a normal test day. A total of 9 hours were flown by 2 test aircraft, and 4 test aircraft sat on the ground. October 14, 2010 10:06 AM ZA001 237 flights 653 hour 05 min Total RR engine 584 flights 1814 hour 30 min ZA005 77 flights 184 hour 15 min Total GE engine 78 flights 185 hour 20 min Total 664 flights 1999 hour 50 min By my arithmetic the total flights shuld be 662, not 664; one flight was removed from ZA004 on the Boeing web site but not accounted for in the totals . After a one-day maximum effort everything seems back to normal with only 8 flight test hurs completed. October 13, 2010 8:53 AM ZA001 235 flights 646 hour 05 min Total RR engine 582 flights 1806 hour 20 min ZA005 77 flights 184 hour 15 min Total GE engine 78 flights 185 hour 20 min Total 660 flights 1991 hour 40 min In World War II movies about the 8th Air Force they called this a maximum effort. Get every plane in the sky. Boeing did that yesterday with the Rolls Royce- engined 787s. All 4 flew for a total of 23 hours and 5 minutes. There have only been a couple of days in the entire test program of this magnitude. Interestingly each has coincided with meeting stock market analysts the next week. The GE-engined 787s were on the ground. Matt Cawby has video and audio on his blog of the work being done on ZA005. It doesn't look or sound like "normal" maintenance. October 12, 2010 8:20 AM ZA001 232 flights 635 hour 20 min Total RR engine 572 flights 1783 hour 15 min ZA005 77 flights 184 hour 15 min Total GE engine 78 flights 185 hour 20 min Total 650 flights 1968 hour 35 min The Rolls Royce-engined flight test program is nearly asleep - only 3 hours and 35 minutes of test flights by one aircraft, but the GE-engined flight test program might as well be dead. ZA006 is going through the maintenance that always follows first flight and won't fly again for a week or two. No surprise there. The surprise is ZA005, immobilized at Paine Field (video at Matt Cawby's web site) for unknown reasons after an aborted flight last week. The puzzling aspect is that ZA005 had just completed a maintenance layup that lasted more than 2 weeks and had included an engine change (according to All Things 787). An analyst at J P Morgan Chase, a few weeks ago, said that Boeing's only problem on the 787 was the Rolls Royce engine; that certainly does not appear to be accurate. The problem seems to be any and all engines. ZA001 has gone through at least 4 engines so far. ZA005 had already had an engine change after less than 200 flight hours. October 11, 2010 8:36 AM ZA001 232 flights 635 hour 20 min Total RR engine 569 flights 1779 hour 40 min ZA005 77 flights 184 hour 15 min Total GE engine 78 flights 185 hour 20 min Total 647 flights 1965 hour 00 min Information Release Edmonds, WA " Gateway to the Olympic Peninsula" October 11, 2010 For additional information contact: Tim Raetzloff 425 670 8167 Delivery of First 787 Will be Delayed Again Boeing will announce its quarterly results on October 20. I will be watching to see if Boeing also announces that the delivery of the first 787 Dreamliner will be delayed yet again. On August 26 Boeing announced that the first delivery would not happen in the 4th quarter of 2010, but would be delayed into the mid-1st quarter of 2011. Now, less than 7 weeks later, it is evident that the first delivery will be delayed further. The only question is, will Boeing acknowledge the additional delay, or pretend they don't know? Boeing is actually conducting 2 787 test programs. The first is for the 787s that use Rolls Royce engines. That program is scheduled to include 2400 hours of flight tests. The 2nd test program is for 787s that use GE engines; this program will only require 1200 hours because many of the shared tests will have been completed by the Rolls Royce test program. The Rolls Royce test program began on December 15, 2009 with the flight of the first 787, code ZA001. The GE test program began on June 16, 2010 with the flight of the first GE-engined 787, code ZA005. The first 787s intended for delivery all use the Rolls Royce engine and that test program is the one that is critical to first delivery. In December 2009 Boeing announced that the Rolls Royce test program would require 9 months to complete 2400 hours of flight tests and the test program would be completed by September 15, 2010; first delivery would follow about 3 months later after FAA approval of the aircraft. A number of analysts, most notably Scott Hamilton, called the test program overly ambitious and unlikely to complete on time. The Boeing response at that time was that they had even allowed themselves some excess time in the schedule for unforeseen contingencies. 10 months later we can see that Scott Hamilton was right and Boeing was wrong. On April 26 2010 I reported that it was statistically impossible for Boeing to complete the program on time. Exactly 4 months after my report, on August 26, 2010, Boeing admitted that the schedule could not be met and that first delivery would slip into mid-1st quarter 2011. First delivery is going to slip again, at least into 2nd quarter 2011. On October 4, 2010 the 6th 787 test plane, code ZA006, flew for the first time. Boeing issued a statement on October 4 about the flight of ZA006, but in that statement Boeing also reported on progress of the Rolls Royce test program. Boeing said that the RR-engined test program was about 65% complete. Whoa!!!! The test program has taken almost 10 months to reach 65% completion and it is somehow going to complete the last 35% in 5 weeks? Amazing, and impossible! The first week after the August announcement of the delay, the 787 test program went very well. The week ending September 5, 2010 Boeing completed 126 hours and 25 minutes of 787 flight tests - one of the best weeks of the entire program. But it didn't last. The week ending September 12, 2010 saw only 63 hours and 20 minutes of test flights. The week ending September 19 saw flight tests fall to 28 hours and 35 minutes. The week ending September 26 flight tests declined again to 27 hours and 20 minutes. The week ending October 3 flight tests reached an all-time low of 13 hours and 10 minutes. Flight testing rebounded somewhat in the week ending October 10 to 52 hours and 30 minutes. In May Boeing executives had confidently predicted that 90 hours of test flights a week was an easily attainable goal, and at that time it didn't seem very far out of reach. But 90 hours a week has turned out to be a very elusive goal, only reached a few times throughout the entire test program. A realistic average has been about 50 hours. Nearly 700 hours remain to be completed in the Rolls Royce test program. At 50 hours a week it will take until mid-January 2011 to complete the test program, more than 4 months behind the original target. There is one more piece of evidence that the test program is not close to completion. Boeing has designated two of the customer-owned 787s to be added to the test program. One 787 will be used for ground testing only, but one will be used for flight tests. Both planes use Rolls Royce engines and neither aircraft is ready to be used for testing. Based on the length of time it took to prepare each preceding test aircraft, it appears that neither of the additional test aircraft will be ready before mid-November. It seems unlikely that Boeing would go the expense of preparing 2 additional test aircraft if the test program would actually complete by mid-November. Solid evidence and circumstantial evidence both point to the conclusion that the Rolls Royce portion of the test program will go on into the new year. It follows that first delivery will be delayed until at least the 2nd quarter of 2011, and this new target is dependent upon no other problems cropping up in the test program. The test program for the 787s that use the GE engine is another matter. The GE program is off to a very slow start, about 200 hours behind where the Rolls Royce program was after 4 months. More than 1000 hours remain to be completed by only 2 GE test aircraft - the Rolls Royce test program has had 4 test aircraft and is about to add a 5th. Unless there is sudden improvement, the GE test program will go into 2012. The question remaining is, will Boeing management admit the obvious, or delay admitting what is evident to everyone else until there is no time left? October 8, 2010 8:33 AM ZA001 225 flights 624 hour 30 min Total RR engine 553 flights 1749 hour 35 min ZA005 77 flights 184 hour 15 min Total GE engine 78 flights 185 hour 20 min Total 631 flights 1934 hour 55 min October 7, 2010 8:51 AM ZA001 223 flights 622 hour 00 min Total RR engine 550 flights 1744 hour 45 min ZA005 76 flights 181 hour 15 min ZA006 1 flight 1 hour 5 min Total GE engine 77 flights 182 hour 20 min Total 627 flights 1927 hour 05 min October 6, 2010 8:11 AM No flights reported yesterday at FlightAware and no update on Boeing web site. October 5, 2010 8:20 AM ZA001 223 flights 622 hour 00 min Total RR engine 548 flights 1738 hour 30 min ZA005 75 flights 176 hour 20 min ZA006 1 flight 1 hour 5 min Total GE engine 76 flights 177 hour 25 min Total 624 flights 1915 hour 55 min Total hours reported as 1916 and 0 minutes on Boeing web site. ZA006 joined the test fleet but had its first flight cut short and 2nd flight canceled. October 4, 2010 8:29 AM ZA001 223 flights 622 hour 00 min Total RR engine 547 flights 1736 hour 10 min ZA005 75 flights 176 hour 20 min Total GE engine 75 flights 176 hour 20 min Total 622 flights 1912 hour 30 min A total of 13 hours and 10 minutes of flights last week. At this pace the test program will go on another year. The Everett Herald this morning reports that All Nippon Airways has canceled 15 orders for 787-8s and substituted orders for 15 787-9s. Effectively that delays the orders by about 5 years with the resulting cash flow delay to Boeing. This follows a similar move by Air China a few weeks ago. There have been no GE-engined flights in more than 2 weeks; ZA006 does appear to be nearly ready to fly. During the lack of Boeing activity I prepared the following release. Information Release Edmonds, WA " Gateway to the Olympic Peninsula" October 4, 2010 For additional information contact: Tim Raetzloff 425 670 8167 Abarim Business Computers 6th Dreamliner takes to the Air The 6th Boeing 787 Dreamliner took off on its first test flight just about an hour before I began this report. #6 arrives in the test fleet at an important point. Test hours have been dropping for months and reached a nadir last week when only 13 hours and 10 minutes of test flights were completed. The week before there were 27 hours and 20 minutes, and the week ending September 19th had 28 hours and 35 minutes of Dreamliner test flights. In May Boeing executives had confidently predicted that 90 hours of test flights a week was an easily attainable goal, and at that time it didn’t seem very far out of reach. During May Boeing completed 332 hours and 30 minutes of test flights, very close to the predicted 90 hours a week. But that was the peak. In June flight test hours fell to 205 hours and 35 minutes, including 6 hours and 20 minutes for Dreamliner #5, the first test plane using GE engines. The remaining 199 hours and 15 minutes were completed by the 4 Dreamliners powered by Rolls Royce engines. In July the test program completed 315 hours and 50 minutes, one third of those hours flown by the first GE-powered 787. In August flight tests fell to 270 and 25 minutes. And flight test hours fell again in September to 233 hours and 5 minutes. The normal expectation is that test hours would increase as the test program goes along. The prediction by Boeing executives in May indicates that they believed the test program would pick up. What happened? At the end of June Boeing discovered a “workmanship issue” in the horizontal stabilizer and interrupted test flights to inspect all 787s. That would account for a small drop-off in test flights for June, but not the dramatic decline that was actually experienced. After the inspection was complete in early July flight tests never got back to the tempo of May and certainly never increased, as was expected. The pace picked up in July, boosted by the addition of the 5th test 787, but not to the level of May. In August and September test flight hours continued to fall. In the last 15 days of September there were 7 days in which there were no test flights at all. I don’t know what is going on; I only keep statistics, but it is clear that all is not dreamy in Dreamliner flight test land. The projected completion of the flight test program by September 15 was missed badly, and will certainly take several additional months to complete. More puzzling is the continued decline in flight test hours at a time when more hours, not fewer, should be the norm. Perhaps the newest test plane will turn the program around, or not. An additional test plane, this will make 7, is now being prepared for flight tests, and an 8th is being prepped for ground tests. I feel like an auctioneer – I have 8; do I hear 9? Where this stops nobody knows, including, obviously, the people in charge at Boeing. I am still short Boeing stock. October 1, 2010 9:28 AM No update from Boeing this morning. According to FlightAware, ZA001 had 2 flights yesterday totaling one hour of flight. According to All Things 787, no other plane will be in the air before Monday October 4. September 30, 2010 9:20 AM No updates on the Boeing web site again. No flights shown on FlightAware. It would be easy to speculate that there is some big reason that there have been no test flights on 7 of the last 15 days. I wonder if a more mundane reason may be the cause. I expect that everyone was forced to delay vacations until after the expected test flight conclusion on September 15. Maybe a lot of key people, people who need and deserve a break, are simply on vacation. If there are no flights today the test program will have logged 210 flight hours in September. September 29, 2010 9:37 AM No update from Boeing and no report of flights on FlightAware. If I have counted correctly, this is the 6th day in the last 2 weeks that there have been no test flights. That never happened even when testing was interrupted by the stabilizer problem at the end of June or early in the test program when there were fewer test aircraft. September 28, 2010 10:12 AM ZA001 223 flights 622 hour 00 min Total RR engine 545 flights 1729 hour 10 min ZA005 75 flights 176 hour 20 min Total GE engine 75 flights 176 hour 20 min Total 620 flights 1905 hour 30 min 6 hours of flights yesterday. If the RR-engined program is going to get the full 2400 hours of flight tests, it will be another 4 months at the pace of the last 2 weeks. No hours for the GE-engined test program again. Boeing hasn't updated as of 8:40 AM September 28, 2010 so how about if I post this release that I did yesterday? Information Release Edmonds, WA " Gateway to the Olympic Peninsula" September 27, 2010 For additional information contact: Tim Raetzloff 425 670 8167 787 Missed Flight Test Deadline On April 21, 2010 Boeing executives enthusiastically reported that the flight test program for the 787 Dreamliner was on schedule for completion by mid-September. On April 26 I reported it was virtually impossible for the 787 flight test program to complete on time because only 20% of the test hours had been completed and there wasn't enough remaining time to make up the hours that were lacking. On April 27 I received a note from a Boeing representative explaining why my numbers were faulty. Among the rationales used was that there were 2 additional test planes that would be flying by June to help expand the flight test load. A few hours later on April 27, Boeing suspended deliveries of fuselage sections and wing components to Everett to cope with supplier delays. The suspension was to last 5 weeks. There have since been 2 more delivery suspensions according to Scott Hamilton of Leeham. The official Boeing release on April 27 said that this suspension of deliveries "would not affect the 787 schedule or deliveries" because the first airplanes for delivery were already assembled. Well, somebody's numbers were wrong, but I don't think they were mine (at least not this time). Mid-September has come and gone and the 787 flight test program goes on. When I reported in April the 787 flight test program needed 1900 hours to completion. As of September 25, 2010, 1200 of those hours have been completed. By my arithmetic there are 700 hours remaining to complete the program. Boeing has been logging about 240 hours of flight tests a month. 700 hours will put completion of the flight test program at about Christmas. Boeing has announced that it intends to use 2 additional aircraft in the flight test program to complete it. Those are not the 2 planes mentioned in the April 27 note. So there are now 8 test aircraft. What happened to the other 2 test planes? Those planes 787 #5 and #6 wouldn't have affected the test schedule under any circumstance even if they had been finished on time. The first 4 test 787s all use the Rolls Royce engine; also the 2 additional planes that will be used in testing. The 2400 hours of flight tests are for those 4 787/RR (now 6) aircraft to lead to certification. 787s #5 and #6 use GE engines and must fly a separate 1200 hour test program. The GE test program is further behind schedule than the Rolls Royce program. Of the 2 planes that should have been flying by the end of June, only #5 has been in the air. #5 has completed 176 hours of flight tests as I write this, in about 3½ months of test flights. By comparison 787 #1, the comparable airplane in the Rolls Royce test fleet, had flown nearly 300 hours in its first 3½ months of test flights. 787 #6 hasn't flown at all. It is 4 months late - no reason given by Boeing except that it "isn't high priority". #6 is finally on the flight line, has taken on fuel, and run its engines, but hasn't completed all pre-flight tests and will probably fly some time in October. Don't look for the 787/GE flight test program to finish before June 2011. Oh, and that delivery schedule that "wouldn't be affected" - Boeing now says that the first delivery is delayed until early 2011. My estimate is that it likely will be mid-2011 or later. September 27, 2010 9:40 AM ZA001 222 flights 620 hour 10 min Total RR engine 543 flights 1723 hour 00 min ZA005 75 flights 176 hour 20 min Total GE engine 75 flights 176 hour 20 min Total 618 flights 1899 hour 20 min Boeing's web site reports 1899 hours and 00 minutes, I think that is a math error. Boeing finally updated its web site after 4 days. There were only 4 flights and 11 hours total. Boeing completed only 27 hours of testing in a week, one of the slowest weeks ever; all hours were by RR-engined 787s. At that pace it would take 40 weeks to complete the 700 hours of testing that remain for the Rolls Royce program, if the original 2400 hours are to be completed.. If the pace picks back up to the 55 hour average of a month ago, it will take 3 months to complete 700 hours. The GE-test program remains inactive. ZA005 has not flown since mid-September and ZA006, now 4 months late, appears to be a week or more away from its first flight. September 24, 2010 9:22 AM There is no update from Boeing today and FlightAware shows no flights yesterday. September 23, 2010 8:38 AM ZA001 222 flights 620 hour 10 min Total RR engine 539 flights 1711 hour 50 min ZA005 75 flights 176 hour 20 min Total GE engine 75 flights 176 hour 20 min Total 614 flights 1888 hour 10 min Tests continue to plod along. 7.5 hours yesterday. No hours for the GE program. September 22, 2010 9:42 AM ZA001 220 flights 617 hour 05 min Total RR engine 536 flights 1704 hour 20 min ZA005 75 flights 176 hour 20 min Total GE engine 75 flights 176 hour 20 min Total 611 flights 1880 hour 40 min 4 hours of flight tests yesterday. 4 hours of flight tests the day before. 4 hours a day has been the average for the last 9 days. At this pace it is going to take until sometime next year to finish the flight test program. The GE flight test program is still practically grounded - ZA005 has flown only 8.5 hours since September 6 and ZA006 hasn't flown at all. September 21, 2010 10:22 AM ZA001 219 flights 615 hour 15 min Total RR engine 534 flights 1700 hour 15 min ZA005 75 flights 176 hour 20 min Total GE engine 75 flights 176 hour 20 min Total 609 flights 1876 hour 40 min The aircraft hours add up to 5 minutes less than reported on the Boeing web site. The test program is "smokin". A total of 4 hours and 20 minutes yesterday, just enough to top 1700 hours for the RR-engined program. At that rate it will be next year before the program is finished. The GE-engined program is under the radar for now, but it is easily 2 months behind where the RR-engined program was at 3.2 months. ZA005 flies rarely and ZA006 still doesn't fly at all. Matt Cawby has photo on his web site of all 4 DreamLifters parked together at Paine Field. That is a sure sign of activity in the production line. Actually Matt noted that one DL did fly to Nagoya later. I assume that would be to retrieve a wing assembly. September 20, 2010 9:02 AM ZA001 217 flights 612 hour 05 min Total RR engine 531 flights 1695 hour 45 min ZA005 75 flights 176 hour 20 min Total GE engine 75 flights 176 hour 20 min Total 606 flights 1872 hour 05 min Boeing finally updated this morning. The Rolls Royce-engined test program was to have been complete a week ago. It is short by at least 430 hours, or 15 weeks at the pace of testing last week. September 17, 2010 9:09 AM I have not heard about a stand down, but the entire 787 fleet seems to be on stand down. There have been no flights since Monday. September 16, 2010 8:39 AM There have been no Boeing updates for 2 days, but I think that is because there have been no test flights for 2 days. ZA001 is being checked after an engine failure. ZA005 has been on the ground for unknown reasons for 12 days. ZA006 is not yet in a condition to fly. I will modify my report if and when Boeing shows any test flights. September 14, 2010 5:14 PM Boeing updated late - the numbers below correct my previous entry - one fewer flight and 35 additional flight minutes. ZA001 212 flights 604 hour 50 min Total RR engine 524 flights 1682 hour 40 min ZA005 73 flights 167 hour 50 min Total GE engine 73 flights 167 hour 50 min Total 596 flights 1850 hour 30 min September 14, 2010 10:43 AM No Boeing update available by 10:30 AM so the numbers below are my estimates based on information from FlightAware. ZA001 212 flights 604 hour 50 min Total RR engine 524 flights 1682 hour 05 min ZA005 73 flights 167 hour 50 min Total GE engine 73 flights 167 hour 50 min Total 597 flights 1849 hour 55 min The Rolls Royce-engined flight test program was to have been completed by tomorrow. At least 450 hours, perhaps as many as 750 hours remain to be completed. The GE-engined test program is at a standstill. ZA005 has not flown in 10 days. According to Matt Cawby, ZA006 is undergoing tests for fuel leaks at the Paine Field fuel dock. ZA006 is unlikely to fly before very late September or early October, which is nearly 4 months behind schedule. September 13, 2010 1:10 PM ZA001 212 flights 604 hour 50 min Total RR engine 522 flights 1675 hour 40 min ZA005 73 flights 167 hour 50 min Total GE engine 73 flights 167 hour 50 min Total 595 flights 1843 hour 30 min September 12, 2010 2:38 PM ZA001 210 flights 601 hour 10 min Total RR engine 518 flights 1662 hour 50 min ZA005 73 flights 167 hour 50 min Total GE engine 73 flights 167 hour 50 min Total 591 flights 1830 hour 40 min September 11, 2010 12:12 PM ZA001 210 flights 601 hour 10 min Total RR engine 516 flights 1655 hour 30 min ZA005 73 flights 167 hour 50 min Total GE engine 73 flights 167 hour 50 min Total 589 flights 1823 hour 20 min Only 8 hours of test flights yesterday. 475 hours, or maybe 775 hours, remaining in the RR-engined test program. The GE-engined test program remained on the ground for the 6th day; ZA006 is now more than 3 months behind schedule. An interesting article in the Daily Olympian says that ZA006 will be used for testing the effects of lightning and electomagnetic interference. My uneducated guess is that ZA006 was delayed to make modifications after what was learned when ZA001 was hit by lightning in May. September 10, 2010 8:12 AM ZA001 210 flights 601 hour 10 min Total RR engine 514 flights 1647 hour 30 min ZA005 73 flights 167 hour 50 min Total GE engine 73 flights 167 hour 50 min Total 587 flights 1815 hour 20 min 5 days left to September 15 and the Rolls Royce-engined 787 test program is at least 480 hours short of completion. The only question is how many weeks (or months) will the test program require beyond the original schedule. My guess is sometime between Thansgiving and Christmas. September 9, 2010 12:39 PM ZA001 206 flights 595 hour 15 min Total RR engine 509 flights 1641 hour 00 min ZA005 73 flights 167 hour 50 min Total GE engine 73 flights 167 hour 50 min Total 582 flights 1808 hour 50 min September 8, 2010 11:07 AM ZA001 204 flights 588 hour 20 min Total RR engine 505 flights 1623 hour 40 min ZA005 73 flights 167 hour 50 min Total GE engine 73 flights 167 hour 50 min Total 578 flights 1791 hour 30 min Matt Cawby reports that ZA006 is ready to begin engine tests - 3 months late. To meet the original test schedule the RR-engined 787s need 510 hours of flight tests in 7 days, an average of 73 hours a day. September 7, 2010 8:22 AM ZA001 202 flights 580 hour 00 min Total RR engine 502 flights 1612 hour 20 min ZA005 73 flights 167 hour 50 min Total GE engine 73 flights 167 hour 50 min Total 575 flights 1780 hour 10 min The Rolls Royce-engined flight tests were less than 12 hours a day for the last 4 days - more than 50 hours a day was needed for a test deadline of September 15. We, of course, know that Boeing could never have reached that deadline. It would now take 65 hours a day to reach that goal, or more hours in a day than Boeing usually flies in a week. The GE-engined program went ahead at full speed, 1.5 hours a day. 1033 flight test hours still needed for that program. At this pace it will take another 688 days of test flights for the GE-engined 787s, that is about the 4th of July 2012. September 3, 2010 9:09 AM ZA001 194 flights 557 hour 00 min Total RR engine 486 flights 1566 hour 20 min ZA005 70 flights 161 hour 30 min Total GE engine 70 flights 161 hour 30 min Total 556 flights 1727 hour 50 min 13 hours of flight tests yesterday for the RR-engined 787s. If Boeing was attempting to finish on time, 560 hours short of the test goal and 12 days to go - an average of 46 hours a day of testing required - which would have been impossible. September 2, 2010 9:58 AM ZA001 193 flights 554 hour 40 min Total RR engine 480 flights 1552 hour 40 min ZA005 69 flights 157 hour 40 min Total GE engine 69 flights 157 hour 40 min Total 549 flights 1710 hour 20 min Since we know the RR-engined test program isn't going to complete on schedule, lets look at the GE-engined flight test program. ZA005 has been operational for 77 days, and has averaged 2 hours a day of flight tests. ZA006 is not yet operational, but has gotten as far as the fuel dock, and should be operational by early October, about 4 months late. 1200 hours need for certification; ZA005 should have a little over 200 flight hours by the time that ZA006 is operational. 1000 remaining hours at 4 hours a day will conclude flight testing in about 250 days from October 1, or about June 5, 2011, fairly close to one year after beginning flight tests. That closely mirrors the RR-engined program timetable. September 1, 2010 9:20 AM ZA001 191 flights 545 hour 30 min Total RR engine 473 flights 1518 hour 25 min ZA005 68 flights 154 hour 50 min Total GE engine 68 flights 154 hour 50 min Total 541 flights 1673 hour 15 min Only ZA001 flew yesterday, for a total of 5 hours. ZA001 has been the workhorse of the test fleet except during the 2 months it was down for lightning repairs. If the program was still on schedule, 610 test hours would still be needed in 14 days, an average of 43 hours a day. Scott Hamilton reports that 4 additional test aircraft will be added to the test fleet. August 31, 2010 8:08 AM ZA001 189 flights 540 hour 30 min Total RR engine 471 flights 1513 hour 25 min ZA005 68 flights 154 hour 50 min Total GE engine 68 flights 154 hour 50 min Total 539 flights 1668 hour 15 min The RR-engined 787s completed 12 hours of flight tests; 39 hours were needed if there was any attempt to stay on schedule. 15 days left to September 15; 620 flight test hours needed; 41 hours a day of flight tests needed to reach the goal. Matt Cawby reports that ZA006, the 2nd GE-engined test plane, has moved to the fuel dock in preparation for tests that lead up to initial flight. ZA006 is at least 3 months late. August 30, 2010 2:16 PM ZA001 186 flights 532 hour 15 min Total RR engine 467 flights 1501 hour 05 min ZA005 67 flights 152 hour 40 min Total GE engine 67 flights 152 hour 40 min Total 534 flights 1653 hour 45 min The 787 flight test program had its most productive weekend in 3 months. 42 hours were completed by the 4 RR-engined 787s and 15 hours by the GE-engined 787. 105 hours were needed to maintain the schedule but it was a good effort. We now know that the test schedule will not complete by September 15, but if they were still trying, 630 hours would be needed in 16 days, an average of 39 hours a day. August 27, 2010 8:23 AM ZA001 181 flights 517 hour 50 min Total RR engine 449 flights 1459 hour 20 min ZA005 62 flights 137 hour 30 min Total GE engine 62 flights 137 hour 30 min Total 511 flights 1596 hour 50 min Boeing today announced that first delivery would slip to February 2011 from December 2010. The test program was to have completed by September 15; there was no way that it could have completed by then, even if this latest problem with the Rolls Royce Trent engine had not developed. The RR-engined 787s completed 12 hours of flight tests yesterday. 34 hours were needed to maintain the schedule. If September 15 were still the goal, it would require 670 flight test hours in 19 days - 35 hours a day. August 26, 2010 8:12 AM ZA001 178 flights 510 hour 40 min Total RR engine 443 flights 1446 hour 45 min ZA005 61 flights 132 hour 25 min Total GE engine 61 flights 132 hour 25 min Total 504 flights 1579 hour 10 min The RR-engined flight test program needed 33 hours yesterday and it completed 8. 20 days remain until September 15; 680 test hours remaining; 34 hours a day of flight tests needed to reach required hours. August 25, 2010 11:54 AM ZA001 176 flights 505 hour 55 min Total RR engine 440 flights 1438 hour 50 min ZA005 60 flights 130 hour 15 min Total GE engine 60 flights 130 hour 15 min Total 500 flights 1569 hour 05 min The RR-engined test program completed 7 hours of flight tests yesterday; hours needed: 32. 690 hours needed by September 15. There are now 21 days left to September 15; flight test hours needed each day: 33. August 24, 2010 8:07 AM ZA001 176 flights 505 hour 55 min Total RR engine 439 flights 1431 hour 55 min ZA005 59 flights 127 hour 35 min Total GE engine 59 flights 127 hour 35 min Total 498 flights 1559 hour 30 min ZA002 completed an epic 15 hour 50 minute flight to the North Pole and back to Boeing Field, but the RR-engined test program fell further behind schedule. 700 hours are still needed before September 15. 22 days are left to September 15; 32 hours a day of test flights are needed to complete the schedule on time. August 23, 2010 11:22 AM ZA001 176 flights 505 hour 55 min Total RR engine 438 flights 1416 hour 05 min ZA005 58 flights 122 hour 15 min Total GE engine 58 flights 122 hour 15 min Total 496 flights 1538 hour 20 min The RR-engined 787s completed an average of 9 hours a day, each of the last 3 days, a total of less than 27 for the 3 days; 28 hours each day were needed to stay on schedule. The test schedule is hopelessly behind schedule - 710 hours needed in 23 days, an average of 31 hours a day. The RR-engined test program will not complete on September 15. The GE-engined test schedule is also falling further behind. ZA006 is not yet flying. ZA005 spent most of last week on the ground at Paine Field, not at Boeing Field. August 20, 2010 8:29 AM ZA001 174 flights 501 hour 25 min Total RR engine 430 flights 1389 hour 30 min ZA005 57 flights 119 hour 30 min Total GE engine 57 flights 119 hour 30 min Total 487 flights 1509 hour 00 min 9 hours and 50 minutes of testing completed yesterday; daily hours needed to complete testing by September 15: 28. 26 days left until September 15; 740 hours of test flights needed; hours needed per day, including weekends: 28. August 19, 2010 8:08 AM ZA001 171 flights 495 hour 00 min Total RR engine 426 flights 1379 hour 40 min ZA005 57 flights 119 hour 30 min Total GE engine 57 flights 119 hour 30 min Total 483 flights 1499 hour 10 min RR-engined 787s completed 8 hours of flight tests yesterday; hours needed: 27. There are now 27 days to September 15; the RR-engined test program needs 750 hours; hours needed per day, including weekends: 28. The GE-engined test program is at a stand-still. Both ZA005 and ZA006 are at Paine Field. Matt Cawby reports a leak of hydraulic fluid in ZA005 http://kpae.blogspot.com/ August 18, 2010 9:10 AM ZA001 165 flights 489 hour 35 min Total RR engine 419 flights 1371 hour 35 min ZA005 57 flights 119 hour 30 min Total GE engine 57 flights 119 hour 30 min Total 476 flights 1491 hour 05 min 0 test hours flown by RR-engined 787s yesterday; 26 hours needed. 28 days left until September 15; 760 test hours still required; 27 test hours now needed every day including weekends. August 17, 2010 8:00 AM ZA001 165 flights 489 hour 35 min Total RR engine 419 flights 1371 hour 35 min ZA005 56 flights 117 hour 25 min Total GE engine 56 flights 117 hour 25 min Total 475 flights 1489 hour 00 min One flight of one hour and fifty minutes yesterday; 25 hours was needed to remain on task for a September 15 deadline. 29 ays left to September 15; 760 hours needed; 26 hours of flight tests needed every day, including weekends. August 16, 2010 8:17 AM ZA001 164 flights 487 hour 45 min Total RR engine 418 flights 1369 hour 45 min ZA005 56 flights 117 hour 25 min Total GE engine 56 flights 117 hour 25 min Total 474 flights 1487 hour 10 min In the 3 days since the last report, Boeing completed 2 test flights for a total of 5 hours and 5 minutes. Boeing needed about 70 hours to stay on schedule for a September 15 completion of the test flight program for the RR-engined 787s. 760 hours of test flights are needed by September 15. 30 days to go; 760 hours needed - a little more than 25 hours a day. Boeing completed 36 hours and 50 minutes of test flights during the week of August 9-August 15. This follows 39 hours and 15 minutes the week of August 2-August 8. A total of 76 hours in 2 weeks, about the number of hours that is needed every 3 days. The is no humanly possible way that Boeing can complete the test program by September 15. August 13, 2010 8:10 AM ZA001 162 flights 482 hour 40 min Total RR engine 416 flights 1364 hour 40 min ZA005 56 flights 117 hour 25 min Total GE engine 56 flights 117 hour 25 min Total 472 flights 1482 hour 05 min 5 hours and 20 minutes of test flights for the RR-engined 787s yesterday; hours needed: 23. 33 days left until September 15; flight hours needed: 770. Daily hours needed to finish test schedule by September 15: 23. August 12, 2010 8:00 AM ZA001 161 flights 479 hour 45 min Total RR engine 414 flights 1359 hour 20 min ZA005 55 flights 114 hour 30 min Total GE engine 55 flights 114 hour 30 min Total 469 flights 1473 hour 50 min 12.5 hours of test flights for the RR-engined 787s yesterday; needed 22 hours. 34 days to September 15; 780 test flight hours needed by September 15; 23 hours a day needed to reach goal. August 11, 2010 9:28 AM ZA001 160 flights 473 hour 15 min Total RR engine 411 flights 1346 hour 50 min ZA005 54 flights 110 hour 40 min Total GE engine 54 flights 110 hour 40 min Total 465 flights 1457 hour 30 min 35 days to September 15. 790 hours required to complete testing. Hours needed per day: 23; hours completed yesterday: 11hours 10 minutes. August 10, 2010 8:46 AM ZA001 159 flights 466 hour 40 min Total RR engine 409 flights 1335 hour 40 min ZA005 54 flights 110 hour 40 min Total GE engine 54 flights 110 hour 40 min Total 463 flights 1446 hour 20 min News reports today indicate that Boeing is "assessing manufacturing issues". No mention of flight test issues. It is certain that Boeing can not complete the RR-engined portion of the flight test program by September 15. At yesterday's pace of one flight of 2 hours and 47 minutes the flight test program will go on into 2011. The GE-engined portion of the flight test is in worse shape than the RR portion. Only 1.5 hours of test flights for ZA005 in more than a week, and ZA006 is still sitting in ATS Hanger 3 as of last night. 36 days to September 15; hours of test flights needed to finish flight test program: 800; hours of flight tests needed per day to finish flight test program by September 15: 22. August 9, 2010 8:11 AM ZA001 159 flights 466 hour 40 min Total RR engine 408 flights 1332 hour 55 min ZA005 54 flights 110 hour 40 min Total GE engine 54 flights 110 hour 40 min Total 462 flights 1443 hour 35 min In 3 days since the last report Boeing completed 17 hours and 35 minutes of testing, an average of 5 hours and 52 minutes a day. Hours needed to complete the test program by September 15: 22 per day. 37 days left and 800 hours needed. August 6, 2010 8:34 AM ZA001 159 flights 466 hour 40 min Total RR engine 402 flights 1315 hour 20 min ZA005 54 flights 110 hour 40 min Total GE engine 54 flights 110 hour 40 min Total 456 flights 1426 hour 00 min 7 hours and 40 minutes testing yesterday (daily requirement for RR-engined aircraft to meet September 15 deadline: 21 hours) 40 days to go; 840 hours to go for reduced test schedule - 1115 hours for original schedule. August 5, 2010 8:53 AM No updates at the Boeing 787 test flight web site today, probably because there were no test flights yesterday. FlightAware shows no flights and radio monitoring by Matt Cawby shows no flights. Hours flown: 0; hours needed: 21. 41 days to September 15; 850 flight test hours needed to complete the reduced test flight schedule - 1120 hours needed to complete original schedule. August 4, 2010 8:17 AM ZA001 159 flights 466 hour 40 min Total RR engine 398 flights 1307 hour 40 min ZA005 54 flights 110 hour 40 min Total GE engine 54 flights 110 hour 40 min Total 452 flights 1418 hour 20 min Just over 7 flight test hours completed for RR-engined planes; 21 hours needed. 42 days left to September 15; 900 hours to go. ZA006 still not on flight line. GE-engined flight tests now at least a month behind schedule. August 3, 2010 8:16 AM ZA001 157 flights 460 hour 30 min Total RR engine 392 flights 1300 hour 20 min ZA005 53 flights 109 hour 10 min Total GE engine 53 flights 109 hour 10 min Total 445 flights 1409 hour 30 min PR trumps engineering again. ZA001 test flight was extended just enough to put the RR test program at 1300 hours. No other aircraft flew. Less than 7 hours of flights completed; 21 hours needed. 43 days left to September 15. ZA006 still missing from the flight line. August 2, 2010 8:21 AM ZA001 156 flights 453 hour 50 min Total RR engine 391 flights 1293 hour 40 min ZA005 53 flights 109 hour 10 min Total GE engine 53 flights 109 hour 10 min Total 444 flights 1402 hour 50 min 6 weeks to go to September 15. 900 hours to go on the reduced RR-engined test schedule. More than 21 hours of flight tests needed each day. This weekend Boeing completed about 11 hours a day. The test program looks to go at least 6 weeks long. The test schedule for the GE-engined 787s is in chaos. ZA006 has not yet made an appearance on the flight line - it will take about 6 weeks after arrival on the flight line before ZA006 is ready for its first flight. ZA006 is now about 3 months behind the schedule that Boeing claimed as recently as June 17. ZA001 is again the workhorse of the RR-engined aircraft, as it was before its unfortunate encounter with a lightning bolt in May. July 30, 2010 10:37 AM ZA001 151 flights 439 hour 10 min Total RR engine 380 flights 1260 hour 40 min ZA005 50 flights 105 hour 10 min Total GE engine 50 flights 105 hour 10 min Total 430 flights 1365 hour 50 min Boeing reported 26 hours and 20 minutes of flight time yesterday, which is just about the amount necessary to complete the test program by September 15. ZA006 is still missing, not yet on the flight line, and at least 2 months behind its intended schedule. July 29, 2010 8:21 AM ZA001 149 flights 433 hour 30 min Total RR engine 375 flights 1238 hour 30 min ZA005 49 flights 101 hour 00 min Total GE engine 49 flights 101 hour 00 min Total 424 flights 1339 hour 30 min July 28, 2010 1:37 PM ZA001 147 flights 425 hour 30 min Total RR engine 369 flights 1223 hour 00 min ZA005 47 flights 99 hour 00 min Total GE engine 47 flights 99 hour 00 min Total 416 flights 1322 hour 10 min By my arithmetic the total should be 1322 hours and 00 minutes. July 27, 2010 8:48 AM ZA001 145 flights 425 hour 30 min Total RR engine 365 flights 1215 hour 20 min ZA005 45 flights 93 hour 50 min Total GE engine 45 flights 93 hour 50 min Total 410 flights 1309 hour 10 min July 26, 2010 8:39 AM ZA001 144 flights 422 hour 00 min Total RR engine 361 flights 1205 hour 10 min ZA005 42 flights 88 hour 40 min Total GE engine 42 flights 88 hour 40 min Total 403 flights 1293 hour 50 min ZA001 is back. After sitting on the ground for 8 weeks, ZA001 is again the most active test aircraft, as it had been until the lightning strike in May. Whatever was wrong must now be working as planned. Whether the time lost can be made up is another question. 7 weeks until September 15, and 1000 test hours lacking. July 23, 2010 8:28 AM ZA001 140 flights 388 hour 15 min Total RR engine 346 flights 1138 hour 45 min ZA005 35 flights 72 hour 30 min Total GE engine 35 flights 72 hour 30 min Total 381 flights 1211 hour 15 min I have been out of touch for 3 days. I have no explanation for the hours on Boeing's web site. ZA004 and ZA003 seem to have lost hours. I think each has more test hours than show on this report. ZA001 is again flying after 8 weeks sitting at Boeing Field. July 19, 2010 9:01 AM ZA001 139 flights 384 hour 20 min Total RR engine 345 flights 1132 hour 05 min ZA005 25 flights 53 hour 10 min Total GE engine 25 flights 53 hour 10 min Total 370 flights 1185 hour 15 min According to Flightaware, ZA005 had 6 flights for a total of 6 hours on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday that do not seem to be included in the Boeing web site totals. July 16, 2010 9:07 AM ZA001 139 flights 384 hour 20 min Total RR engine 344 flights 1122 hour 35 min ZA005 25 flights 53 hour 10 min Total GE engine 25 flights 53 hour 10 min Total 369 flights 1175 hour 05 min Hours as reported by Boeing. My arithmetic says they have done just a bit better at 1175 hours and 45 minutes. ZA001 still not flying more than 7 weeks after lightning strike. July 15, 2010 3:18 PM ZA001 139 flights 384 hour 20 min Total RR engine 341 flights 1112 hour 55 min ZA005 24 flights 49 hour 15 min Total GE engine 24 flights 49 hour 15 min Total 365 flights 1162 hour 10 min July 14, 2010 8:57 AM ZA001 139 flights 384 hour 20 min Total RR engine 338 flights 1099 hour 15 min ZA005 23 flights 45 hour 35 min Total GE engine 23 flights 45 hour 35 min Total 361 flights 1144 hour 50 min July 13, 2010 2:00 PM ZA001 139 flights 384 hour 20 min Total RR engine 336 flights 1091 hour 30 min ZA005 16 flights 37 hour 35 min Total GE engine 16 flights 37 hour 35 min Total 356 flights 1132 hour 55 min July 12, 2010 8:50 AM ZA001 139 flights 384 hour 20 min Total RR engine 336 flights 1091 hour 30 min ZA005 16 flights 37 hour 35 min Total GE engine 16 flights 37 hour 35 min Total 352 flights 1129 hour 05 min Matt Cawby reports, "N787ZA was moved out of the factory Sunday night, but not to the July 9, 2010 8:55 AM ZA001 139 flights 384 hour 20 min Total RR engine 334 flights 1087 hour 35 min ZA005 11 flights 27 hour 45 min Total GE engine 11 flights 27 hour 45 min Total 344 flights 1115 hour 20 min Despite Boeing's claim that the 787s are flying again, a look at the numbers indicates otherwise. No flight hours for Rolls Royce-engined 787s yesterday. On May 20, at the stock analysts' meeting, Boeing said that about 90 hours a month per plane would get them easily to the flight test goal. They have averaged 50 hours per plane per month since. The 787 test program is now, without question, behind schedule and losing ground every day. When will Boeing admit it? July 8, 2010 8:40 AM ZA001 139 flights 384 hour 20 min Total RR engine 334 flights 1087 hour 35 min ZA005 10 flights 23 hour 45 min Total GE engine 10 flights 23 hour 45 min Total 344 flights 1111 hour 20 min July 7, 2010 12:36 PM ZA001 139 flights 384 hour 20 min Total RR engine 333 flights 1084 hour 00 min ZA005 7 flights 18 hour 00 min Total GE engine 7 flights 18 hour 00 min Total 340 flights 1102 hour 00 min July 6, 2010 11:03 AM ZA001 139 flights 384 hour 20 min Total RR engine 333 flights 1084 hour 00 min ZA005 5 flights 13 hour 50 min Total GE engine 5 flights 13 hour 50 min Total 338 flights 1097 hour 50 min July 3, 2010 8:42 AM No update on the Boeing Flight Test web site, but ZA005 did fly about 3 hours yesterday, the only 787 to fly since Tuesday. July 2, 2010 8:47 AM There have been no flight tests for 2 days, but the 787s are "not grounded". June 30, 2010 8:36 AM ZA001 139 flights 384 hour 20 min Total RR engine 332 flights 1080 hour 40 min ZA005 2 6 20 Total GE engine 2 flights 6 hour 20 min Total 334 flights 1087 hour 00 min ZA002 has taken over the flight hours lead from ZA001. ZA001 has flown fewer than 10 hours since the lightning strike in late May left it "undamaged". June 29, 2010 8:44 AM ZA001 139 flights 384 hour 20 min Total RR engine 328 flights 1076 hour 25 min ZA005 2 flights 6 hour 20 min Total GE engine 2 flights 6 hour 20 min Total 330 flights 1082 hour 45 min Information Release Edmonds, WA " Gateway to the Olympic Peninsula" June 28, 2010 For additional information contact: Tim Raetzloff 425 670 8167 Abarim Business Computers Is the Boeing 787 Safe? The genie is out of the bottle. Dominic Gates and the Seattle Times released the genie yesterday in a business section front page article. Is the 787, or for that matter the AirBus A350, as survivable as an aluminum airplane in hard landings or crashes? The new planes are built primarily of carbon composites; previous planes were built primarily of aluminum. Translate “carbon composite” as reinforced plastic. Boeing says that fears are unrealistic and overstated, but some former Boeing employees and others who have an understanding of the project believe that a carbon composite aircraft is less safe than one built of aluminum. Plastic is made mostly of oil, and we all know that oil burns. 80 years ago the aircraft industry changed from wood to aluminum as the principal structural material. Now Boeing and AirBus want to move from aluminum to plastic. It is an engineering step forward, but is it a step forward in safety for airline passengers? One of the positive features of aluminum was that it didn’t burn. Like wood, plastic burns. In a catastrophic crash it will make no difference what material the plane is constructed of; in a catastrophic crash there will be no survivors. It is the “minor” crashes (if any crash may be considered minor), and crashes that are less than catastrophic where the basic structure of the aircraft becomes important for survivability. The other concern about a plastic airplane is lightning. Aluminum airplanes are regularly struck by lightning, and continue flying. The conductivity of aluminum dissipates the energy of the lightning bolt. Lightning has been a special concern for the new airplane and it has been the subject of thousands of engineering design hours because plastic does not dissipate electricity. Safeguards have been designed, but do they work? Only one 787 has thus far been struck by lightning. ZA001 was hit late in May while on approach to Boeing Field. Boeing says the plane “appeared to be undamaged”. ZA001 may have been undamaged, and I am not in a position to judge that. But I do know numbers and statistics. An interesting thing happened to ZA001 after it was hit by lightning – it virtually stopped flying. According to the Boeing flight test home page, ZA001 had accumulated 135 flights and flown 374 hours and 45 minutes in the five months of testing before the lightning strike. ZA001 was the workhorse of the test program, accumulating more hours than any of the other test aircraft, and an aircraft that pilots apparently enjoyed flying. Since the lightning strike, ZA001 has flown 4 times for a total of 9 hours and 35 minutes. Boeing management says ZA001 “appeared to be undamaged”, but Boeing test records say that ZA001 has virtually stopped flying since being struck by lightning. Judge for yourself; which do you believe? As for me I will wait several years before I will voluntarily fly in a plastic airplane, Boeing or AirBus. Those of you who are more adventurous may fly in my place. Any flying I do will be limited to airlines that don’t own plastic airplanes, and my position in Boeing stock is again short. June 28, 2010 10:22 AM ZA001 139 flights 384 hour 20 min Total RR engine 325 flights 1066 hour 35 min ZA005 1 3 50 Total GE engine 1 flight 3 hour 50 min Total 326 flights 1070 hour 25 min ZA002 and ZA003 are again flying as of June 27, 2010, after inspections. June 25, 2010 7:56 AM All test flights cancelled for up to 10 days to repair improperly installed parts in horizontal stabilizer. "Program still on schedule" June 24, 2010 11:35 AM ZA001 139 flights 384 hr 20 min Total RR engine 323 flights 1057 hr 05 min ZA005 1 3 50 Total GE engine 1 flight 3 hr 50 min Total 324 flights 1060 hr 55 min June 23, 2010 8:31 AM ZA001 139 flights 384 hr 20 min Total RR engine 322 flights 1050 hr 50 min ZA005 1 3 50 Total GE engine 1 3 50 Total 323 flights 1054 hr 40 min June 22, 2010 8:22 AM ZA001 139 flights 384 hr 20 min Total RR engine 320 flights 1044 hr 20 min ZA005 1 3 50 Total GE engine 1 flight 3 hr 50 min Total 321 flights 1048 hr 10 min June 21, 2010 8:06 AM ZA001 139 flights 384 hr 20 min Total RR engine 318 flights 1031 hr 55 min ZA005 1 3 50 Total GE engine 1 flight 3 hr 50 min Total 319 flights1035 hour 45 min On May 20, Boeing executives reported at a financial analyst's meeting that each test aircraft would need 90 hours of flight testing a month to complete the test schedule on September 15. On May 21 the total flight time was 786 hours and 40 minutes. Those 4 aircraft are now at 1031 hours and 55 minutes, a gain of 245 hours and 15 minutes in one month. That is a deficit of 114 hours and 45 minutes from the estimates, 32% less than expected. There are 12 weeks left until September 15. To complete the test schedule, as laid out by Boeing on May 20, each plane must now fly 101 hours a month to complete the schedule on time. June 18, 2010 8:38 AM ZA001 139 flights 384 hr 20 min Total RR engine 313 flights 1014 hr 25 min ZA005 1 3 50 Total GE engine 1 flight 3 hr 50 min Total 314 flights 1018 hr 15 min A press release from Boeing http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Boeing-787-Dreamliner-Passes-prnews-2037880831.html?x=0&.v=1 indicates that the 787 test program is about 40% complete. There are less than 13 weeks to September 15 to complete the remaining 60%.
June 17, 2010 8:12 AM ZA001 139 flights 384 hr 20 min Total RR engine 310 flights 997 hr 35 min ZA005 1 3 50 Total GE engine 1 flight 3 hr 50 min Total 311 flights 1001 hr 25 min ZA005, the first 787 using the GE engine flew yesterday. As originally reported, the test program for the 787 with RR engine would be 2400+ hours, using 4 aircraft, and the test program for the GE engine would be 1200 hours, using 2 aircraft. The 2nd aircraft using the GE engine, ZA006, has not yet flown. On May 20, Boeing executives reported to financial analysts that the 787 program would need to complete 90 hours a week to finish the Rolls Royce portion of the test program by September 15. That indicated a reduction in test program hours to less than 2300 from the 2400+ originally anticipated. Boeing has completed 225 hours and 50 minutes in the subsequent 4 weeks, 62% of the number Boeing reported as necessary. To complete the program on schedule will now require more than 100 hours a week of test flights, a number that seems increasingly unlikely. June 16, 2010 9:27 AM ZA001 139 flights 384 hr 20 min Total 308 flights 994 hr 15 min June 15, 2010 8:12 AM ZA001 139 flights 384 hr 20 min Total 307 flights 982 hr 55 min June 14, 2010 8:40 AM ZA001 139 flights 384 hr 20 min Total 305 flights 964 hr 30 min First update from Boeing in 4 days, and only 26 hours total in 4 days. June 11, 2010 11:04 AM ZA001 135 flights 374 hr 45 min Total 297 flights 938 hr 25 min No update from Boeing today. ZA003 did fly nearly 10 hours yesterday, and ZA002 may have flown 2 short hops - flightaware.com is unclear on the results. Jon Ostrower at Flightblogger at www.flightglobal.com says that ZA001 is being re-engined, which accounts for its 2-week disappearance from flight testing. No explanation yet for the disappearance of ZA004 from flight testing. June 10, 2010 8:08 AM ZA001 135 flights 374 hr 45 min Total 297 flights 938 hr 25 min On May 20, 2010, Boeing management announced that it would need about 90 hours of test flights a week to complete the 787 test program on schedule. At that time there were 17 weeks until September 15, 2010. 3 weeks have passed. 166 hours and 40 minutes of test flights have been completed, less than 62% of the needed hours. There are now 14 weeks left and the necessary hours have grown to 97 hours a week. test planes ZA001 and ZA004 have not flown in 2 weeks. There were no test flights on May 29 and June 7. June 9, 2010 10:22 AM ZA001 135 flights 374 hr 45 min Total 295 flights 933 hr 50 min June 8, 2010 8:59 AM ZA001 135 flights 374 hr 45 min Total 293 flights 927 hr 55 min No flights yesterday. The second time this has happened in a little over a week. There were no flights on May 29. June 7, 2010 11:34 AM ZA001 135 flights 374 hr 45 min Total 293 flights 927 hr 55 min June 4, 2010 8:45 AM ZA001 135 flights 374 hr 45 min Total 288 flights 898 hr 30 min The total hours only add up to 888 hours and 30 minutes. However, I believe the total is correct - ZA002 was in the air more than 10 hours yesterday and I think hours for ZA002 should be 266 not the 256 indicated on the Boeing web site. Frankly, for a company that is worried about its image and press, and has nearly unlimited resources for the job, the Boeing flight test web site is badly maintained with almost daily mistakes. June 3, 2010 8:28 AM ZA001 135 flights 374 hr 45 min Total 287 flights 886 hr 20 min Only 33 hours and 45 minutes of test flights in the last week. There are now less than 15 weeks to September 15. It will take an average of 101 hours a week to meet the schedule. The only week that they hit more than 100 hours of test flights was the week from May 14 to May 21; coincidentally that was the week before Boeing announced to the stock market analysts that they only needed 90 hours a week and had hit 112 hours the week before. Did I say coincidentally? June 1, 2010 8:20 AM ZA001 135 flights 374 hr 45 min Total 285 flights 881 hr 25 min May 29, 2010 10:34 AM ZA001 135 flights 374 hr 45 min Total 283 flights 863 hr 40 min Boeing's total on the web site I total the time at 872 hours and 40 minutes - a gain of 9 hours and 50 minutes from the previous report May 28, 2010 8:31 AM ZA001 135 flights 374 hr 45 min Total 280 flights 863 hr 50 min Boeing completed 77 hours and 10 minutes of test flights in 7 days. After a one-week surge in test flights things are back to normal at about 3/4 of the hours needed to complete testing by September 15. There are 110 days (15 weeks and 5 days) until September 15; Boeing needs 1556 hours and 10 minutes to reach the scheduled 2430 hours. No sign that ZA005 or ZA006 are flightworthy yet. No new planes have taken to the air since March 14; so much for producing 2 planes a month. May 27, 2010 8:54 AM ZA001 134 flights 372 hr 45 min Total 278 flights 852 hr 35 min May 26, 2010 8:19AM ZA001 133 flights 368 hr 25 min Total 272 flights 840 hr 25 min May 25, 2010 8:04AM ZA001 133 flights 368 hr 25 min Total 267 flights 830 hr 45 min May 24, 2010 12:54PM ZA001 133 flights 368 hr 25 min Total 265 flights 824 hr 00 min May 21, 2010 10:02AM ZA001 128 flights 361 hr 25 min Total 252 flights 786 hr 40 min May 20, 2010 8:04PM ZA001 126 flights 357 hr 10 min Total 248 flights 771 hr 45 min May 19, 2010 1:23PM ZA001 124 flights 352 hr 55 min Total 242 flights 747 hr 15 min May 18, 2010 8:09AM ZA001 123 flights 347 hr 25 min Total 236 flights 720 hr 35 min May 17, 2010 8:32AM ZA001 122 flights 343 hr 10 min Total 231 flights 699 hr 15 min There has been a surge in test hours this week, 75 flight hours in 4 days. If Boeing can maintain this pace they can reach 2400 hours by September 15. But by my count the number of flights only add up to 230. May 16, 2010 10:05AM ZA001 11i flights 337 hr 55 min Total 225 flights 676 hr 35 min As reported on Boeing web site. I think that 11i for ZA001 should be 119. Matt Cawby reported about ZA005, "I noticed on Friday the right engine was run for a few hours and the left engine had the cowling open with some people working on it". May 15, 2010 10:58AM ZA001 115 flights 331 hr 00 min Total 219 flights 649 hr 15 min No flights or hours added - probably just an update glitch. FlightAware. com shows ZA001 with 2 flights on Friday with a total duration of 2 hours, and a 10 hour 53 minute flight for ZA004. I believe that 10 hour flight is the longest yet recorded by a 787. May 14, 2010 9:16AM ZA001 115 flights 331 hr 00 min Total 219 flights 649 hr 15 min May 13, 2010 8:01AM ZA001 111 flights 325 hr 40 min Total 210 flights 624 hr 50 min May 12, 2010 8:07AM ZA001 111 flights 325 hr 40 min Total 209 622 35 May 11, 2010 8:13AM ZA001 110 322 20 Total 206 617 00 Total flights should be 207 May 10, 2010 8:22PM ZA001 109 320 05 Total 205 609 20 Assuming that this list includes all flights through May 9, 2010, the 787 test program logged 109+ hours from April 16, 2010 through May 9, 2010, a total of 23 days. Boeing had noted that 200 flight hours was reached on February 28, 2010 and 500 hours on April 16, 2010. From February 28, 2010 to April 16, 2010, a total of 47 days the program logged 300 hours. The flight test program has actually slowed down from and average of 6.38 hours a day between February 29 and April 16, to 4.74 hours a day from April 16 through May 9. May 9, 2010 7:20PM ZA001 105 312 40
May 8, 2010 3:09PM ZA001 105 312 40
May 7, 2010 8:26AM ZA001 105 312 40 Total 196 588 00 May 6, 2010 ZA001 102 311 25
May 5, 2010 ZA001 100 308 00 Total 189 577 20 May 4, 2010 8:13 AM ZA001 99 305 20 Last Flew 4-14 Total 187 574 15 May 3, 2010 8:16 AM ZA001 99 305 20 Last Flew 4-14 Total 185 565 10 May 2, 2010 7:57 PM ZA001 99 305 20 Last Flew 4-14 Total 180 548 55 May 1, 2010 8:30 PM ZA001 99 305 20 Last Flew 4-14 Total 180 548 55 April 30, 8:08AM
Total 179 543 35 April 29, 2010 AM exact time not noted ZA001 99 305 20 Total 177 536 25 April 28, 2010 AM exact time not noted ZA001 99 305 20 Total 176 526 55 April 27, 8:08AM ZA001 99 305 20 Total 175 518 10 April 25 5:03PM ZA001 99 305 20 April 25 9:23AM ZA001 99 Flights 305 hours 20 minutes Total 171 505 45 Information Release Edmonds, WA " Gateway to the Olympic Peninsula" April 26, 2010 For additional information contact: Tim Raetzloff 425 670 8167 On April 21, Boeing CEO James McNerney, and Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO James Albaugh enthusiastically reported the Boeing flight test program for the 787 was on schedule for completing the test program by mid-September. But that enthusiasm just doesn't match the numbers. Boeing Company says that the 787 flight test program has logged 500 hours as of Friday April 16, 2010. At 10:19 AM on April 26, 2010 the Boeing report at http://787flighttest.com/ says that the total number of hours flown by 787 test aircraft has gone up to 509 hours of test flights completed. They completed 9 hours in 10 days. The test program requires 2400 hours of flight tests. At this pace the program will be done in 2015. OK so that is an exaggeration based on a bad week. This was the least productive week of testing since January. A better comparison is to measure how much has been accomplished in the last 2 months. Boeing had announced that the 787 program had logged 200 hours by the end of February 2010. In the 8 weeks to April 26, the test program has logged an additional 309 hours, an average of 5.5 hours testing a day. This is better, but at this pace Boeing still will need 343 days (until April 4, 2011) of testing to complete the 2400 hour test program. To complete the test program by the target of September 15, 2010, 142 days from today (just over 20 weeks), Boeing will need to test at a rate of 13 hours and 18 minutes a day, a number that seems unlikely in view of what has been completed so far. Boeing completed 200 hours of flight testing by the end of February with only 2 test planes for most of that time. Test plane ZA004 flew for the first time on February 24, but only completed 3 hours of testing during February. The first 2 aircraft completed the bulk of the testing and averaged 3 hours of testing per day, a little over 1.5 hours per plane. (About 15 hours of testing was done in December 2009, the remaining 185 hours in January/February 2010) The 4th test aircraft, ZA003, joined the program on March 14. There were a total of 309 hours of testing in the 8 weeks of testing between February 28 and April 25. That is an average of 5.5 hours a day or less than 1.5 hours a day per aircraft. (I counted ZA003 as ¾ aircraft because it didn't fly until March 14) The aircraft utilization remained constant compared to what it was in January and February. It is difficult to see how Boeing can increase aircraft utilization by 150% over what has been a near constant for 4 months of testing. Boeing does have an out. Boeing has only promised that the 787 will enter service in the 4th quarter of 2010. It is possible that a test program that completed by November 1 could still accomplish that goal. That would add 6.5 weeks to the test schedule, 46 days. The necessary flight hours to reach that goal would then be reduced to 10 hours a day, or 2.5 hours per aircraft. This number may be attainable, but the number of test hours needs to increase soon to achieve it. Since Boeing posts the hours on its http://787flighttest.com/ web site we can all see for ourselves. I have decided that I don't expect Boeing to succeed at even the delayed schedule. I expect deliveries of the 787 will not occur until next year at the earliest. Based on that expectation, I have shorted Boeing stock. Programs that start badly usually continue badly - as an example look at the AirBus A380 program. The much-delayed A380 entered service in late 2007, but is still far behind on scheduled deliveries, delivering only 10 in 2009, compared to the intended 18. I believe that the 787 program is just such a program. One former Boeing employee proudly told me how the 777 fuselage sections went together perfectly when the prototype was built 20 years ago. He also described how the 787 sections couldn't be forced together when it was first tried. The 777 program has very been successful. I doubt that the 787 ever will be.
Information Release Edmonds, WA " Gateway to the Olympic Peninsula" February 1, 2010 For additional information contact: Tim Raetzloff 425 670 8167 Microsoft: The Most Profitable Company in the World The title as the most profitable company in world fell upon IBM. IBM held the title until the early 1990s. From the early 1990s to 2002 the title belonged to GE, except in 2000 when it was Exxon. The Iraq war in 2003 drove up the price of oil. The most notable beneficiary of the spike in oil was ExxonMobil, based in Irving, Texas. ExxonMobil profits soared from 11.46 billion dollars in 2002 to a record 21.51 billion dollars in 2003. ExxonMobil profit nearly doubled in one year, and the profit of more than 21 billion dollars was the largest profit ever recorded by any company. ExxonMobil profits continued to soar as the price of oil soared. In 2008 ExxonMobil recorded a profit of 45.22 billion dollars. But the price of oil has declined by 50% from the peak in July 2008, and ExxonMobil profits have declined with it. ExxonMobil profit fell to 19.7 billion for 2009, and to just over 6 billion dollars for the quarter ending December 31, 2009. Will it last? Stay tuned to find out.
1 ExxonMobil
Microsoft http://www.microsoft.com/msft/earnings/fy10/earn_rel_q2_10.mspx and Exxon http://www.exxonmobil.com/Corporate/Files/news_release_earnings4q09.pdf
Information Release Edmonds, WA " Gateway to the Olympic Peninsula" January 29, 2010 For additional information contact: Tim Raetzloff 425 670 8167 Microsoft: The Most Profitable Company in the World ? According to Forbes Magazine the 10 most profitable companies in the world at the end of 2008 were 1 ExxonMobil
Thus far, IBM reported 4.8 billion in earnings, and Procter & Gamble reported 4.66 billion dollars. ExxonMobil will be closer than that, but should come in about 1 billion dollars below Microsoft. A few years ago Microsoft was the most valuable company in the world, as measured by market capitalization, the value of its stock; now Microsoft is on the verge of becoming the most profitable company in the world. Edmonds, WA " The Friendliest Town on Puget Sound " For additional information contact: Tim Raetzloff 425 670 8167 At Abarim Business Computers, Inc. And the Biggest Financial Company in the Northwest Is?? November 7, 2009 Nobody answered correctly. Who would have guessed? A company often described as conservative (in the traditional sense), even described as stodgy by some, has outlasted the go-go, trend-setting companies, and is now the largest financial institution headquartered in the Northwest. Seattle-based, but no one in Seattle thought to mention it. In September this company sold more than 300 million dollars in additional shares in a secondary offering of stock, but even the stockbrokers I asked didn’t think of it. Shares in this company are trading near their 52-week high. The market capitalization of this company is only about 20% below its all-time high market capitalization. Market capitalization is calculated by multiplying the value of one share by the number of shares outstanding. This company has more than 12 billion dollars in assets. Do you need more clues? 26 years ago the then-CEO of this company said of Washington Mutual, “If they will buy stock in that, they will buy anything.” It took 25 years, but time ultimately justified him. Any guesses now? The answer is, ta-da, Washington Federal. Boring old Washington Federal. Washington Federal that mostly just lends on fixed-rate 30-year mortgages. How last millennium. On Friday November 6, 2009, Washington Federal shares closed at $17.83 a share. Washington Federal has 112,270,330 shares outstanding as of October 30, 2009, according to the most recent 10-K (annual report) filed at www.sec.gov Put those 2 numbers together and the result is a market capitalization of just over 2 billion dollars. The market capitalization of the closest competitor to Washington Federal is about one eighth as much. Earnings are larger at Washington Federal than at any Northwest competitor, and WaFed now has more assets than any of its Northwest competitors. By national, trillion-dollar standards, WaFed is small, but, for now, it is the biggest in this part of the woods. I don’t know whether this is the classic tortoise/hare story or just a temporary fluke. Commerce and industry are dynamic; some other financial organization may grow past WaFed, but at this moment Washington Federal is easily #1.
Recent television appearances: Enrique Cerna Connects on KCTS October 30, 2009 http://www.komonews.com/news/67386457.html October 28, 2009 Boeing management continues to look for a scapegoat. Boeing management is the problem; this decision doesn't change that fact. Boeing has not yet gotten one 787 production line to run; does anyone really believe that they can run two? This is the same Boeing board that rubber-stamped Phil Condit, replaced him with Harry Stonecipher, and now plays golf with Jim McNerney, the present absentee CEO. I am not much of a fan of the union, but this entire charade is ridiculous. The kowtowing done by our local politicians to Boeing is embarrassing. Boeing has not created a new job in Washington in 40 years. Tax breaks given to Boeing have probably aborted tens of thousands of new jobs in the small businesses that are forced to make up for the Boeing gimmes. If the concessions that Boeing wanted, in wages, healthcare, and other benefits, had been granted, it would have probably been a larger equivalent loss to the local economy than the loss of jobs because it would have spread across all lines, not just the 787. South Carolina may discover, to their grief, that Boeing doesn't keep all of its promises. Chicago is still looking for the 500 jobs that were promised for the gimmes that Boeing got in that move.
Edmonds, WA " The Friendliest Town on Puget Sound " For additional information contact: Tim Raetzloff 425 670 8167 A Pair of 50 Billion-dollar Companies October 25, 2009 The stock market was down on Friday October 23, 2009. Amazon.com (AMZN), however, was up nearly 27% because of spectacular growth in sales and earnings. At the end of trading on October 23, AMZN had a market capitalization of 51.3 billion dollars. Market capitalization is calculated by multiplying the value of one share by the number of shares outstanding. For the first time since June 2001, Washington, and King County, has 2 companies with a market capitalization of more than 50 billion dollars. The other company is, of course, is Microsoft (MSFT - I own some of it for full disclosure), which was also up in a down market. Microsoft has a market capitalization of almost 250 billion dollars, 248.8 to be accurate. Amazon had 432,982,766 shares outstanding on October 19, 2009, according to the latest 10-Q filed at SEC, and a closing price of $118.49 a share on October 23, 2009. Microsoft had 8,879,121,378 shares outstanding on October 19, 2009, according to the latest 10-Q filed at SEC, and a share price of $28.02 on October 23, 2009. According to Forbes magazine, only 65 companies in the world had a market capitalization of 50 billion dollars or more, when the Forbes list came out 6 months ago. http://www.forbes.com/lists/2009/18/global-09_The-Global-2000_MktVal.html The last time (June 2001) Washington had 2 companies with a market capitalization of 50 billion dollars or more, the 2 companies were Microsoft and Boeing. At that time Boeing was intending to leave town 4 months later, but the stock was drifting lower. For a time Boeing shares bloomed in the new Chicago soil, but Boeing shares are worth less now than they were in June 2001. The market capitalization of Boeing shares is 36.3 billion dollars, based on 726,599,064 shares on October 16, 2009 and a closing price of $49.89 on October 23, 2009.
When Will 787 Fly - Will It Fly? Edmonds, WA " The Friendliest Town on Puget Sound " The Boeing 787 was to have made its maiden flight 4 weeks ago. It didn't and now the question is, when will it fly? Do Boeing executives have a clue? Today they say that a new schedule will be announced before October. I won't claim that I have a clue either, except that once upon a time in the West I worked for Boeing in engineering design development on a plane that had a problem with its wings. Wings are a necessity if you ever want to do more than exercise the engines taxiing at Paine Field. I remember reading about a Navy pilot in WWII who didn't like it when the first planes with folding wings arrived on the early aircraft carriers. Flying a plane with retractable wings made him uncomfortable. My experience with a new plane that had wing problems was also with a retractable wing. The SST wing was intended to retract in high-speed flight and extend when in low speed mode. Like the planes on aircraft carriers, which have used retractable wings successfully for 70 years, the SST probably would have flown as well - except for one slight problem. The engineer who designed the wing pivot (to retract the wing) made a mistake in his calculations. The wing pivot was too heavy for the aircraft. The SST required a complete redesign, and it was never built. The engineer who designed the overweight wing pivot moved to project after project until he reached the highest level of the Boeing Company. The SST was attempted in another era and it wasn't the 787, but it was a revolutionary plane that used relatively untested materials (titanium alloy compared to the composites used by the 787) to advance air transport technology. The SST was a leap forward, not just a step, and the same may be said for the 787.
This history doesn't mean that the 787 will never fly. One Boeing executive says that the wing problem can be cured with inexpensive parts that will fit in the palm of your hand. I hope that is true. But it never seems to be that easy. When those parts that "fit in the palm of your hand" are installed the stress points will move. Tests and simulations will need to be run to learn if the stress reinforcers require additional stress reinforcers at the new points of stress. Every component that is changed carries the potential to force changes to nearby components. It may turn out that the entire fuselage/wing marriage must be redesigned. Redesigning any marriage is difficult at best. Changes may add weight and increase fuel usage, decrease range and load capacity - all the selling points of the 787. The problem isn't one of engineering. I have great confidence that Boeing engineers will get it right if they are given enough time. The problem is on the corporate side. It wasn't very long ago that Boeing executives were mocking the AirBus A380 program because it was 2 years behind schedule. The 787 is now 2 years behind schedule and counting. It will certainly be 3 years behind before it is ever flown. Boeing executives are under the Wall Street gun to get a plane in the air - any plane - 787, 787a, b, c…q. In view of the design problems, and, more importantly, the manufacturing problems in places like South Carolina, the 787 has thus far encountered, the hurry up test program that Boeing intended to implement will probably be thrown out by the FAA. It is hard to see how first flight can occur before 2010 and how deliveries can occur before late 2011. Boeing started with a 4 year lead on the AirBus A350. That lead is now down to 18 months. I have been a booster for Washington and, especially, Snohomish County, for twenty years. I realize it is important for this region that Boeing get it right. But the sad truth is that everything about the 787 program has been wrong from the start. Boeing executives can blame unions, but it appears to an impartial observer that the unions are responsible for less than 5% of the delays, and the real number may less than that. Boeing management hastily designed a Rube Goldberg construction plan that was more concerned with moving production out of the hands of union workers than it was with producing a quality airplane. It is amazing to me to see headlines blaming the union. Anyone who knows me knows that I am no fan of unions. Union blindness certainly helped destroy many industries in this country, but this time they aren't guilty. Boeing management alone caused this debacle. Boeing management pulled the trigger and shot the company. Clearly it is more serious than a wound in the foot. It remains to be seen if the wound will be mortal.
Naming Rights - The Solution to Budget Deficits Edmonds, WA " The Friendliest Town on Puget Sound " Many people are concerned about the budget deficits at the federal level and at the state and local levels. Governor Schwarzenegger in California has been talking about the possibility of selling some California landmarks to balance the budget. The possibility of just selling the naming rights has been brought up as an alternative. This isn't a new proposal. Actually it was Enron that began to make inquiries about renaming the Space Needle in Seattle a number of years ago. Enron management apparently thought they should have an appropriate With the number of billionaires in Seattle, both those who own sports When city fathers in Paris heard Obviously, if a sports venue can claim $10 million a year Apparently at some point sports franchises got into the naming rights story because it seems that the local teams are acting as consultants to Seattle and the Space Needle leasing authority. The sports teams will get an agent's commission. That might pay for one more "superstar". Just think, the Mariners could hire back Richie Sexson or bid up a new contract for Adrian Beltre from the commission they will get advising Seattle on selling naming rights. Nationally, Wal-Mart is reputedly the leader in the bidding war for the Statue of Liberty This interest in naming rights has even spread outside the US and Europe. Citigroup is so flush with TARP money that it has offered to pay the entire budget of Nepal for naming rights to Mount Everest. This has caused 2 problems. China says that Nepal can't sell naming rights to Mount Everest because China owns at least half of the mountain. The other problem is that 3rd World activists are Stay tuned and, as I learn more, I will continue to report on this innovative solution to budget deficits. Now if it were only April 1 and this wasn't real.
Washington is Still Producing Billion Dollar Companies At Abarim Business Computers, Inc. The economic downturn has certainly hurt in Washington, as it has almost everywhere. But, new companies continue to grow to replace the ones that have disappeared. Measured by market capitalization, there are 17 companies in Washington that have a value of more than one billion dollars as of the close of trading today, June 3, 2009. Market capitalization is calculated by multiplying the value of one share by the number of shares outstanding. I haven't done as well reporting on new billion-dollar companies as I have done in the past. As a catch-up, or maybe that is just a ketchup, I decided to mention a few of the newer billion-dollar companies that may have been missed. Seattle-based Dendreon has benefited from a great deal of positive coverage about its prostate cancer drug candidate, Provenge, has propelled Dendreon to a market capitalization of 2.511 billion dollars. Itron is based in Liberty Lake, WA (that is in Spokane County), and has seen its shares rise because its products monitor the use of energy, and we all know how important that is. Itron is now worth 2.189 billion dollars. Concur Technologies provides software that better enables companies to measure and control employee expense. Concur has a market capitalization of 1.526 billion dollars. Each is relatively small compared to the established companies in the region, but maybe in 20 or 30 years??
Amazon 36.812 billion dollars Starbucks 11.239 billion dollars Expeditors International 7.209 billion dollars Nordstrom 4.917 billion dollars F5 Networks 2.595 billion dollars Dendreon 2.511 billion dollars Itron 2.189 billion dollars Concur Technologies 1.526 billion dollars Washington Federal 1.151 billion dollars Potlatch 1.055 billion dollars 15 of the billion-dollar companies are based in King County, and 2 in Spokane County. All numbers are based on the 4PM New York closing price for each company and the reported number of shares for each company at the SEC from the most recent 10-Q or 10-K available on this date.
Information Release Edmonds, WA " The Friendliest Town on Puget Sound " April 14, 2009 For additional information contact: Tim Raetzloff 425 670 8167 Shares outstanding March 5, 2009 98,201,864 Amazon More Valuable Than Boeing Act II Edmonds, WA " The Friendliest Town on Puget Sound " March 4, 2009 For additional information contact: Tim Raetzloff 425 670 8167 At Abarim Business Computers, Inc. On February 22 I reported that Amazon.com was more valuable than Boeing by one billion dollars in market capitalization as of the close of trading on February 20, 2009. Market capitalization is calculated by multiplying the value of one share of common stock by the number of shares outstanding and provides a snapshot of value. In the 8 trading sessions since February 20, the market has declined about 7%. Amazon has gone up. As of March 4, 2009 Amazon has a lead of almost 6 billion dollars over Boeing. Amazon is worth 27.8 billion dollars, up 1.5% since February 20. Boeing is worth 22 billion dollars, down 16% over the same span. Boeing is a component in the Dow Jones Industrial Average; Amazon is not. According to the most recent filings at http://idea.sec.gov/idea/searchidea/companysearch_idea.html Boeing has 726,127,813 shares as of February 6, 2009, and Amazon has 428,583,135 shares as of January 22, 2009. Amazon closing price on March 4 was $64.81 a share; Boeing closing price was $30.31.
Amazon More Valuable Than Boeing Edmonds, WA " The Friendliest Town on Puget Sound " February 22, 2009 For additional information contact: Tim Raetzloff 425 670 8167 At Abarim Business Computers, Inc. Amazon.com gained $1.91 a share to close at $63.86 a share on Friday, February 20, 2009. That was a gain of 819 million dollars. On the same day Boeing lost $1.26 a share to close at $36.31, a loss of 915 million dollars. At the end of trading on Friday, February 20, 2009, the market capitalization of Amazon was 27.369 billion dollars; Boeing market capitalization was 26.366 billion dollars. Market capitalization is calculated by multiplying the value of one share by the number of shares outstanding. When trading began on Friday, February 20, 2009 Boeing was more valuable than Amazon by 730 million dollars; by the end of trading Amazon was more valuable by more than a billion dollars, a change of almost 1.75 billion dollars in one day. According to the most recent filings at
Boeing has 726,127,813 shares as of February 6, 2009, and Amazon has 428,583,135 shares as of January 22, 2009. There is another interesting bit of information at the SEC web site. The web site has recently been updated to make it easier to use. It is now possible to do searches by state and by just the first letter of two of the name. If you enter Boeing and IL, there are no matches. If you enter Boeing and WA, there is information on Boeing Co, Boeing Capital, and Boeing Capital Securities. 8 years after Boeing supposedly moved to Illinois, the SEC, the official arbiter of such things, says that Boeing is still a Washington company. Fortune 500, are you paying attention? This is actually the 2nd time that Amazon has been more valuable than Boeing. At the end of the Internet Insanity Bubble 9 years ago Amazon was more valuable than Boeing for a few days. That value was based on hope, expectation, and just plain foolishness. This time the valuation looks like it may be permanent.
Information Release Edmonds, WA " The Friendliest Town on Puget Sound " April 18, 2005 For additional information contact: Tim Raetzloff 425 670 8167 Shares of Western Wireless were down a little more than 1% in the week ending Friday April 15, 2005. Usually that would be cause for disappointment, but this was an unusual week. The S&P 500 was down more than 3%, and many companies were down more than 3%. Of the 1500 largest companies on the New York Stock Exchange more than 100, over 7%, were down 10% or more. Of the top 1000 NASCAQ companies more than 100, over 10%, were down 10% or more. Western Wireless held most of its ground while dozens of companies fell past it. As of the close of trading on April 15, 2005, Western Wireless is one of the top 500 companies in the U.S. as measured by market capitalization. Market capitalization is calculated by multiplying the value of one share by the total shares outstanding. The Seattle-area now has 15 companies in the top 500 measured by market capitalization. This is the largest number since early 2000. The Seattle-area companies ranked in the top 500, and the market capitalization as of the close of trading April 15, 2005 are: # 3 Microsoft $266.1 billion * Note: Boeing counted as a Seattle-area company because SEC filings continue to show Boeing principal business address as Seattle, 4 years after Boeing supposedly left. ** Usual Note: I own shares of Washington Mutual and have no financial or business interest in any other company in this release. This result is reversed from the experience of the last 2½ years, and probably represents a move to the safety of the largest companies. Over 2½ years since the bottom of the last bear market the platinum circle has gained more than 28% in market capitalization, the gold circle has gained 46%, and the silver circle has gained 62%. The smaller companies have gained value more quickly than the largest companies. The largest companies have been very active in buying back shares to support stock values. Since the relaxed rules for buybacks following 9/11 many of the largest companies have spent billions of dollars supporting the value their shares. Cisco has been the most active, buying back over 820 million shares, or $14 billion at current value. Oracle as bought back 400 million shares. ExxonMobil has bought back the largest dollar amount, 370 million shares, or $20 billion. Repurchases of 100 - 200 million shares have been common in the platinum circle. The net effect has been an appearance of a stronger market among the largest companies. During a bull market companies usually issue more shares as options are redeemed and investors reinvest dividends. This bull market has been unusual as shares have been bought back rather than issued. The Dow roughly measures the movement of the platinum circle and is up about 34% since the bottom of the market, while the market capitalization is up only 28%. The difference is the large number of shares repurchased by the largest companies.
March 10, 2005 5 years ago we talked about the top of the stock market. Ever skeptical, you asked me to let you know the next time I thought the market was near a top. I think we are there. We are near 4 year highs today, and the market is still 10% - 20% below the last top, depending on which index you follow; but I think that we will see a break down into a new bear market soon, and at the absolute outside before Thanksgiving. I also think that we will see a break in the hot real estate market (big shock !!!) at the same time. This will be the first time since 1969 that the stock market and real estate market turn down together. I expect this to be a normal bear market of shorter duration and less depth than the one we suffered through from 2000 through 2002. My guess is a decline of 30%-35% in the S&P over 18 months. I don't know what the trigger will be but there are certainly plenty of possibilities. The collapse of the dollar has benefited the earnings of companies that have overseas operations, but the growth rate in overseas earnings will slow even if the dollar continues to drop and that will lower earnings expectations and acceptable multiples for earnings. In plain language stock prices of multi-nationals won't hold. Interest rates are certainly headed higher. Another President from Texas gave us "guns and butter" 4 decades ago. It couldn't be done then and it can't be done now. Interest rates have remained remarkably stable in the face of massive deficits. Expect that to change. I expect mortgage rates to climb to 8% for a 30-year fixed by the end of 2007, up from 5½% just a few weeks ago. When interest rates go up it will destroy the entire dynamic of the current housing boom. People who need to buy houses will still buy houses, but the mania will come to an end. Expect the builders to have overbuilt just as they did during every upturn in the 60s and 70s. Expect inflation to creep back into our daily lives. That will actually mitigate the housing market so that it doesn't collapse. The term stagflation will be resurrected into daily jargon on the news. The age of boomers seems to be considered in health care, but not in relation to investing. The leading edge of boomers turn 59½ in less than 4 months. They don't have to begin taking distributions from their tax-deferred accounts, but they can, and certainly they will think more about what is in those accounts. For those who have enough to be secure and don't want to risk it further, look for a move out of stocks into interest-bearing investments. If younger workers are permitted to put some social security investments into private accounts it will not be enough money, quickly enough, to stave off this bear market, but it will fuel the next bull market. Then there is oil. I don't understand how folks who are so worried about reducing taxes don't recognize that the tax of higher oil prices is far more devastating to regular folks than an income tax will ever be. Maybe the blindness is caused by the reality that the tax goes to friends in Texas, Oklahoma, and Saudi Arabia, who will finance the next campaign. Every time oil has reached record high prices in the past it has tanked the stock market and the economy. I keep hearing Wall Street types say that this time is different. Maybe it is different, but that is the same thing they were saying about technology stocks 5 years ago. I can't see any reason why it should be different this time. There just aren't very many like you driving hybrids, and the more money that goes for gasoline and heating oil is less money for food, clothes, and entertainment. Maybe the trigger will be China when they stop buying our bonds and financing the fiscal foolishness in DC. This also amazes me - where are the real conservatives? Are there any left who care about fiscal responsibility? When foreign counties decide to stop financing our debt maybe it will be a wake-up call, but it would also trigger a bear market. And there are terrorists. I regard this as the least likely scenario. It took Bin Laden and friends 8 years to organize their 2nd attack on the World Trade Center. I expect it may take them many more years to arrange a major attack. Nevertheless we continue to spend billions destroying our own airline and travel industries with excessive measures. There were adequate safeguards to stop terror before 9/11, but no one paying enough attention to detail. I expect that the multiple layers of bureaucracy that has been put in place since 9/11 actually makes us less likely to halt a terror attack but it certainly uses more resources. The terrorists may never need to make another attack. The weight of the anti-terror force may be enough to wreak economic devastation of its own. Maybe there won't be one trigger that causes the new bear market to start, but a combination of things. The biggest thing that I notice is that the charts of many stocks are getting top-heavy. It is only a matter of time before that corrects itself. It always does. The sky isn't falling but it may lower expectations when we have another bear market so close on the heels of the last one. Information Release Edmonds, WA " The Friendliest Town on Puget Sound " March 7, 2005 For additional information contact: Tim Raetzloff 425 670 8167 Abarim Business Computers Thoughts About Harry On December 1, 2003 I wrote the following: [ "I have been a vocal critic of Boeing management, offending some who receive these releases. The news that Phil Condit has "resigned", following the firing of Mike Sears, should be good news. It isn't. The appointment of Harry Stonecipher is a step backwards. Mr. Stonecipher said that Boeing has thousands of talented employees. At least he got that right. Mr. Condit talked about the great accomplishments of Boeing. He got that right also. Virtually nothing else that I heard in the press conference made any sense at all. The Senate investigation will now be even more thorough, and nearly certain to take a year or more. That puts the Everett 767 production line in jeopardy. Unless Boeing gets new 767 orders between now and the end of 2004, it may be impossible to keep production going long enough for the tanker contract to begin. If the Air Force really needs tankers, the planes ordered may not be 767s. This sudden action removing Mr. Sears and Mr. Condit makes it appear that the hands of the CEO were not clean in the tanker contract scandal. Mr. Sears appears ready to defend his actions as approved by his superior, and, probably, by the board. I don't think I need to remind anyone that this is an election year, and political advantage will determine what finally happens with the tanker contract. Boeing may finally get the contract because there are few alternatives, so the company may not ultimately suffer at all; but, for the workers on the 767 production line, that determination may not come soon enough to save their jobs. My very strong opinion is that the Boeing board has been asleep. Phil Condit's conduct of Boeing has been in question for more than 5 years, ever since the production snafu in the commercial airplane division. A prominent Seattle business columnist wrote in 1998 that Mr. Condit would not survive long in the job. Unfortunately that prediction was wrong. The problems at Boeing are not limited to commercial airplanes. Every Boeing division has had at least one crisis in the last year. This indicates serious problems at the very top, of which the tanker scandal is little more than the proverbial tip of the iceberg. As layers are disclosed in the investigation no good for Boeing can come from it. The frustrating part of the entire process is that the responsible parties seem certain to retire in wealth, while the employees pay the full bill of management failures. The State of Washington should be reviewing the $3 billion giveaway to keep Boeing 7E7 production in Washington. If the tanker process has been tainted, is there any reason to believe that Boeing has operated any differently in the 7E7 decision? The $3 billion in "incentives" to Boeing will be made up by every other business in the state. Is the damage done to those other businesses worth the "gain" of 7E7 jobs, and does that make Washington a more "business-friendly" environment? Wouldn't Washington be more "business-friendly" if the $3 billion was spread around to every other business in the state by small across-the-board reductions in the B&O tax? If the state is willing to give up $3 billion to be more "business-friendly", why not spend the money where it will really generate more jobs? This crisis in Boeing management gives Washington the opportunity to review the "incentives" and use the money in a more rational, and more productive way." ] Today I have to add that the board has finally awakened and done its job. That is very good news for the ultimate health of Boeing. However, the excuse for firing Harry Stonecipher sounds bogus, just like almost everything associated with Harry Stonecipher has been bogus right along. Harry's great skill has been the ability to bs Wall Street and administration officials. How ironic that the government should return Boeing to its good graces on Friday, in recognition that Boeings ethics woes are behind it, and on Sunday the board of directors should find it necessary to dismiss CEO Stonecipher for a lapse in judgment and ethics. I believe there is more to the firing than an affair. Almost certainly the board had more reason to request the resignation. There is, at least, a suspicion that investigators are getting closer to Harry in the Darlene Druyun investigation, and other ethics investigations of government contracts improperly awarded to Boeing. Sadly, this new cloud makes it almost certain that the 767 line in Everett will be shut down. It also will strengthen Boeing opponents in Congress. How much better if the board had done its job 15 months ago and cleaned house at the top. Boeing must fully cooperate with government investigators to remove the last of the suspicion. It is time to reconcile Boeing and Seattle. The individuals who were the cause of the friction are now gone. There is much to be gained for Boeing and the region if we find that we can again work together and salvage as much as possible from the situation. Information Release Edmonds, WA " The Friendliest Town on Puget Sound " July 18, 2004 For additional information contact: Tim Raetzloff 425 670 8167 No this isn't a pipe dream. I realize that Boeing made a huge production out of the move of the headquarters to Chicago, probably the biggest such move of the last decade; but check out Boeing's file at the SEC. Boeing's files at the SEC indicate that Chicago is the company mailing address, and that Seattle is the actual business address. It is not uncommon for a company to use 2 addresses for a year or more while moving the company headquarters. Burlington Resources kept Seattle as a mailing address for more than a year when BR moved to Texas 10 years ago. Potlatch kept San Francisco as a mailing address for more than a year when moving to Spokane 5 years ago. What is unusual (in fact the only case I found while checking companies that have moved headquarters in the last few years, there may be another but I didn't find it) is that Boeing did not keep Seattle as the mailing address, but installed a mailing address in Chicago and maintained the business address in Seattle. What is also unusual is the length of time - Boeing is using Seattle as its business address nearly 3 years after the "move". I can't find another example of dual addresses used that long. If you want to check for yourself go to: http://www.sec.gov/edgar/searchedgar/companysearch.html Less than half the expected 500 jobs landed in Chicago. It looks like Chicago got the CEO and some support staff, but a lot of what is considered to be executive functions remain in Seattle. I can only guess at why. An absentee CEO is not all that uncommon. You need only go as far as Redmond to AT&T Wireless where John Zeglis has been missing in action since AWE was spun from AT&T. Then there was notorious case of Bill Agee (Mr. Mary Cunningham) who would never go to Idaho to the headquarters of Morrison Knudsen, of which he happened to be CEO. There are literally hundreds of cases of absentee CEOs. Before I digress too much it appears that what Chicago really got was an absentee CEO and his entourage. The real headquarters remains in Seattle and is so indicated in the SEC filings. I can't blame Mr. Reed for believing that Chicago was cheated. I found only 1 other top 100 company in the country which uses a mailing address in one state and a business address in another state. That company is First Data, which moved from Atlanta to Greenwood Village, CO about 2 years ago. During the process of leaving Atlanta, a mailing address in Omaha was set up and is still on the SEC filings, but the business address is in Colorado where the company is really relocated. Fortune magazine lists First Data as a Colorado company, which is certainly correct. Using the same criteria, Boeing is still a Seattle company. I have decided that I will include Boeing in reports about Seattle companies until Boeing begins to use Chicago as its business address. Information Release Edmonds, WA " The Friendliest Town on Puget Sound " March 17, 2003 For additional information contact: Tim Raetzloff 425 670 8167 Abarim Business Computers 2 Years Since Boeing decided to Leave When Boeing announced that it was leaving Seattle 2 years ago, the city had barely stopped shaking from the February earthquake, and was still psychologically shaking from the Fat Tuesday riots a few weeks before and the WTO riots a year before. That timing probably made the Boeing announcement even more startling, and caused even more doubt and discussion than it would have at any other time. Boeing had been the economic engine of Seattle for 60 years, and Boeing was going away. Would the lights really go out this time? The lights didn't go out. After 2 years the Seattle area share of the market capitalization of the United States not only hasn't gone down, but it has gone up slightly, despite the loss of Boeing and 2 other large companies, as the region has clearly out-performed many other areas of the country. On March 16, 2001, the last Friday close before the Boeing announcement, there were 12 Seattle companies in the top 500 in the US when measured by market capitalization. The value of Seattle companies was $489.560 billion, 4.557% of the US total of $10.7425 trillion. Boeing was a little less than 10% of the Seattle total. In the 2 years since, Seattle lost the headquarters of Boeing, and also VoiceStream Wireless (now T-Mobile a part of Telekom), and Immunex (now a part of Amgen). The value of those 3 companies was $79.76 billion (17%) of the 2001 Seattle total, which should have reduced the Seattle portion of the top 500 to 3.8%. Yet on Friday March 14, 2003, there were again 12 Seattle companies in the top 500. The total market capitalization of Seattle companies had declined to $378.446 billion, a loss of 22.697%. Over the same period of time, the total market capitalization of the 500 most valuable companies in the US had declined to $8.0306 trillion, a loss of 25.245%. The Seattle portion of the total is now 4.713%, a higher percentage than it was 2 years before. 3 new companies that had never been in the top 500 in 2001 are now on the Seattle list: Expedia, Plum Creek, and Expeditors International. Of the old companies, the value of Amazon, Starbucks, PACCAR, and SAFECO have gone up. Washington Mutual and Weyerhaeuser are virtually unchanged. Microsoft and Costco Wholesale have both declined less than the national average. Of the largest Seattle area companies, only AT&T Wireless has declined more than the national average. The Seattle area doesn’t seem to have been damaged at all by the Boeing move. The biggest losers in the process seem to have been Boeing itself and the New York Stock Exchange. The value of Boeing shares has declined by 52.465%, and the total market capitalization of Boeing has declined by 57.197%. Boeing was the 52nd most valuable company in the US in 2001, and is now #80. Much of that loss can be attributed to September 11, and the devastation to commercial airlines. But there is anecdotal evidence that small Seattle area investors have quietly abandoned Boeing shares, and Chicago area investors have not filled the gap. Boeing shares were the foundation of many Seattle area portfolios for decades, through good times and bad. That attachment is now broken, and Boeing is probably a little the worse for it. Boeing was the largest New York Stock Exchange company in the Seattle area for 50 years. NYSE companies were 26.7% of the Seattle total in 2001, but the NYSE share has declined to 16.3% in 2003. The momentum that NYSE had built up in the late 90s by listing Washington Mutual and Nordstrom is now gone. Seattle is once again firmly NASDAQ territory. Boeing left Seattle, but the Seattle area is still among the dynamic areas of the country. Boeing’s arrival in Chicago didn’t do a thing for Chicago, but put the spotlight on the declining fortunes of the Windy City.
Appended Statistics: Largest Seattle area companies on March 16, 2001, market rank, market capitalization, share price, and shares outstanding: # 2 Microsoft $290,932,360,000 $54.56 5,332,338,000 shares # 52 Boeing $ 47,754,130,000 $53.75 888,449,000 shares # 57 AT&T Wireless $ 42,504,000,000 $18.40 2,310,000,000 shares # 86 WashingtonMutual $ 29,945,810,000 $51.49 581,585,000 shares #112 VoiceStream Wireless $ 20,581,650,000 $90.31 227,900,000 shares #135 Costco Wholesale $ 16,638,030,000 $37.13 448,102,000 shares #192 Immunex $ 11,421,940,000 $21.25 537,503,000 shares #207 Weyerhaeuser $ 10,616,060,000 $49.88 212,832,000 shares #257 Starbucks $ 8,243,000,000 $43.81 188,158,000 shares #456 Amazon.com $ 3,914,500,000 $11.00 355,864,000 shares #480 Nextel Partners $ 3,579,380,000 $14.75 242,670,000 shares #493 PACCAR $ 3,429,130,000 $44.81 76,526,000 shares
Largest Seattle area companies on March 14, 2003, market rank, market capitalization, share price, and shares outstanding:
# 1 Microsoft $266,036,430,000 $24.86 10,701,385,000 shares # 53 Washington Mutual $ 31,052,130,000 $33.53 926,100,000 shares #109 AT&T Wireless $ 16,037,580,000 $ 5.92 2,709,050,000 shares #123 Costco Wholesale $ 13,487,210,000 $29.59 455,803,000 shares #150 Weyerhaeuser $ 10,622,280,000 $48.51 218,971,000 shares #171 Amazon.com $ 9,593,480,000 $24.71 388,243,000 shares #177 Starbucks $ 9,403,350,000 $24.26 387,607,000 shares #282 PACCAR $ 5,612,360,000 $48.43 115,886,000 shares #327 SAFECO $ 4,710,140,000 $34.42 136,843,000 shares #349 Expedia $ 4,301,930,000 $37.14 115,830,000 shares #366 Plum Creek Timber $ 3,974,510,000 $21.50 184,861,000 shares #387 Expeditors International $ 3,615,570,000 $34.74 104,075,000 shares
Dow Jones Industrial Average March 16, 2001 9823.41 March 14, 2003 7859.71 Percent change - 19.99
S&P 500 March 16, 2001 1150.53 March 14, 2003 833.27 Percent change - 27.58
NASDAQ Composite March 16, 2001 1890.91 March 14, 2003 1340.33 Percent change - 29.12
Top 500 Market cap March 16, 2001 $10,742,542,740,000 March 14, 2003 $ 8,030,618,340,000 Percent change - 25.24
Seattle top 500 companies March 16, 2001 $ 489,560,190,000 March 14, 2003 $ 378,446,970,000 Percent change - 22.70
Boeing share price March 16, 2001 $53.75 March 14, 2003 $25.55 Percent change - 52.47
Boeing market capitalization March 16, 2001 $47,754,130,000 March 14, 2003 $20,439,440,000 Percent change - 57.20
And I suppose I should again provide the disclaimer. I do own shares of Washington Mutual. Neither I nor Abarim Business Computers have any financial interest in any of the other companies, except to the extent that local companies doing well is good for the local economy.
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